The 3rd: Ramstad Retires

The 3rd: Ramstad Retires

In re U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad (R-MN 3) and his retirement announcement this week, D.J. Leary, one of Politics In Minnesota's founders and editors (now retired) perfectly captured our thoughts and thus we'll repeat verbatim his letter published this week in the Star Tribune:

One of the tiny slivers of civility remaining in American politics is leaving with U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad's retirement from the U.S. House. He was an extraordinary example of public restraint and personal responsibility when it came to partisan matters. Sadly, there are very few similar gentle people in the public arena today and Ramstad's departure is truly a loss for those of us longing for common decency in a world of public policy overrun with verbal thugs.

While we're extremely happy for Jim, his wife, Kathryn Ramstad and their daughter, in their newly found and well-earned freedom post-Congress, we're sad for the political process. An era in Minnesota politics, if not American politics, is over. That era was one in which Democrats routinely publicly outed themselves as having voted for Ramstad over the DFL sacrificial lamb candidate du jour, and perhaps more significantly, an era in which hard core conservatives also touted themselves as Ramstad supporters -- without reservation or fear of retribution from other conservative Republicans.

Ramstad, of course, is one of the soon-to-be extinct elected Republicans who consider themselves fiscally conservative and socially moderate (read: pro choice on abortion).

Ain't no way around it: As Ramstad retires, so does, in D.J.'s words, a "tiny sliver of civility remaining in American politics."

A sliver of that sliver of civility gets obliterated by national forces. National Democrats and liberal groups will now descend en masse...what could be better than taking a seat the Republicans have held for decades? Likewise, national Republicans and conservative groups will descend en masse...what could be worse than losing a seat the Republicans have held for decades?

But we're betting the bulk of the sliver of civility gets wiped out by Minnesota Republicans, themselves.
More below the fold...
The 3rd: The 1990 Ramstad GOP Endorsement Victory Redux

At first blush, the 2008 GOP endorsing contest will appear to be a replay of the 1990 contest in which then-State Sen. Jim Ramstad bested a field of four candidates. The dynamic was much the same: Moderate Ramstad was running to replace retiring moderate GOPer U.S. Rep. Bill Frenzel. The latter served 20 years, and Ramstad will have served 18 when he retires. In 1990, Ramstad was deemed "moderate" because he was the only pro choice GOPer in the race. The other candidates vying for the endorsement were pro life: Then-former Rep. Chuck Halberg of Burnsville, then-Rep. K.J. McDonald of Watertown, then-Rep. Sally Olsen of St. Louis Park.

However, to the Republicans we talked to who were involved at the time (which does include your publisher who was at that convention helping Ramstad), abortion wasn't necessarily the defining issue. Rather, it was how people were treating the so-called Christian Right takeover of the party. Some of the supposedly conservative candidates in the race had bad-mouthed the Christian activists, and it was this issue--much more than abortion--that defined the race. Ramstad never had (and never did) violate Reagan's 11th Commandment, "Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican." Also, greatly helping Ramstad was the fact that the enormously popular K.J. McDonald got into the race too late. Finally, Ramstad had the good sense to woo and win over key GOP conservatives like the late, great Mike Cavanaugh and his wife, Margaret Cavanaugh (who, by the way, works in Ramstad's Minnesota state office).

Bottom line? Ramstad won the endorsement after five ballots largely because of his personality and relationships with endorsing delegates, not because or despite his political mantle as a GOP moderate.

The 3rd: The 2008 GOP Endorsing Contest

While the Democrats are proceeding more slowly (see next story), possible GOP contenders are off to the races, and their phones. We hear more than one candidate is already calling delegates. One is proffering that he/she is the "most conservative" in the race. Others are saying that "big hitter so-and-so" is supporting his/her candidacy (according to our sources, no one with a big check book has committed to anyone, yet).

First, here's our list of who is not running:

• Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Delano).
• Former Pawlenty chief of staff and former Sen. David Gaither.

Second, the likely candidates and our initial thoughts:

• Sen. David Hann (R-Eden Prairie). Businessman/legislator with good conservative credentials.
• Sen. Geoff Michel (R-Edina). Michel is the only heir-apparent to the "fiscal conservative/social moderate" tradition of Republicans representing the 3rd. What consideration the 3rd District Republicans give that ideology is the million dollar question.
• Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie). Former House Majority Leader. Ran for House Minority Leader against current House Minority Leader Rep. Marty Seifert (R-Marshall). This is significant because Paulsen didn't espouse sour grapes after losing that contest. Also significant is that Paulsen worked for Ramstad both in D.C. and in Minnesota as his state director.
• Rep. Joyce Peppin (R-Maple Grove). Knocked off former GOP Rep. Arlon Lindner and may be the only woman in the GOP contest. Conservative credentials.
• Businessman Brian Sullivan. Currently the GOP's National Committeeman and former candidate for governor. Although he lost the GOP endorsement to Tim Pawlenty in 2002, Sullivan has earned high marks since then for representing the GOP well in various media. Sullivan has the potential to be the powerhouse in the race. Not only does he have his own checkbook, but also presumably the checkbooks of bigwig Freedom Club contributors. [Obviously, Sullivan has impeccable conservative credentials, although he's the only conservative guy we know who can pull off not wearing socks on Almanac.]
• Rep. Kurt Zellers (R-Maple Grove). Young and affable, with conservative credentials.

Third, the other possible candidates:

• Former Rep. and GOP AG candidate Jeff Johnson.
• Former GOP AG candidate Tom Kelly.
• Sen. Warren Limmer (R-Maple Grove).
• Hennepin County Sheriff Rich Stanek. [We didn't connect with Stanek but presume he's a highly unlikely candidate.]

Our early prediction is that this devolves into a serious contest between Michel, Paulsen and Sullivan.

[One funny aside: On Monday when the Ramstad retirement news broke, Michel, Paulsen, Peppin and Zellers were all on a golf course for a House GOP fundraiser. Great merriment was had by lobbyists watching the four work their cell phones during the game.]

The 3rd: The DFL Endorsing Contest

As noted above, Democrats are proceeding more slowly, and they have a built-in easy reason to do so. The next round of Federal Election Committee reports is due September 30. That means that anyone who formally declares and forms a committee before that date must file a report. In a competitive field, the only thing worth noting in early FEC reports is how much money is raised. Democrats interested in the race have smartly decided to skip that kind of pressure...who can raise consequential dough in 10 days or so anyway?

Last night on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, guest Bill Clinton talked about how difficult it is for members of Congress to raise cash constantly [video] and fly around the country. The testy, edgy attitude of Washington could partly be attributed to "chronic" sleep deprivation and "sheer physical strain," Clinton said. We suspect that Ramstad would agree, and that it will be an important subject around the kitchen tables of prospective candidates this weekend.

Another big factor will be the tidal waves of outside money. More than one potential candidate told PIM they felt like they wouldn't recognize themselves at the end, after all the negative independent expenditures. EMILY's List, which backs liberal female candidates, could be a critical factor. Also, reportedly 3rd District DFL caucuses tend to have more women.

In alphabetical order, here's who is out:

• Rep. Denise Dittrich (DFL-Champlain). She could have kick-started a campaign by self-financing, which is perhaps why her name popped up in a Washington Post blog (more below on that).
• Former DFL Party Chair Mike Erlandson said he is not running, according to the Pioneer Press.
• Former U.S. Attorney David Lillehaug said he would not run if Andy Luger runs (more below on Luger), according to the Pioneer Press.
• Former congressman Bill Luther is out, but would have been formidable. He got the boot from the Beltway in 2002, losing to U.S. Rep. John Kline. His last run was for attorney general in 2006.
• Rep. Maria Ruud (DFL-Minnetonka). This nurse practitioner is regarded as solid in ostensibly hard-right turf: She boosted her reelection percentage to 55-45 in 2006.

In alphabetical order, here is everyone we found "seriously considering" the race, or at least not yet to be counted out:

• Sen. Terri Bonoff (DFL-Minnetonka) defeated the GOP, in the supposed GOP Minnetonka-Plymouth stronghold, in an special open-seat election in 2005, and won reelection 52%-48%, just a hair higher than Pawlenty's results there that year. She would have a good network of local activists behind her. Bonoff spoke at this week's 3rd District DFL meeting.
• Former SD41 candidate Andrew Borene was speculated about by MPR's Bob Collins. Borene, a veteran, had to withdraw from challenging GOP Sen. Geoff Michel (R-Edina) in 2006 after a domestic assault incident, after which he said he would receive treatment for chemical dependency. The former Marine intelligence officer is a prosecutor with Anoka County and has a blog.
• Former state senator, gubernatorial and attorney general candidate Steve Kelley is also considering running. Kelley has a positive aura from his respectable strategy during the contentious DFL nominating battle in Rochester last year, and he is certainly not regarded as a divisive Democrat. Though Kelley would have to move into the district.
• Andy Luger is considering a run after his unsuccessful bid for Hennepin County Attorney against Mike Freeman. Two positive points: he just campaigned in nearly the same geographic area as the 3rd District, and was able to raise serious dough. On the other hand, previously losing as the more liberal candidate makes positioning harder in this truly purple district. [Not inconsequential was Freeman's margin of victory over Lugar, which was 59%-41%.]
• Hubert Horatio "Buck" Humphrey IV, scion of Minnesota's greatest political family, is considering running, with unparalleled name ID. However, with few public policy notches on his belt, he might not be able to get enough buzz. Humphrey attended this week's 3rd District DFL meeting.
• Rep. Melissa Hortman (DFL-Brooklyn Park) is in her 2nd term and already an Assistant Majority Leader. However, she has two young children, a difficult load to handle while working in D.C. Hortman gets bonus points, for she's the only one already gratuitously attacked by Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh this year, merely for remarking that our hot summer could have affected the bridge's integrity (which we noted last month). In a typical move, those attack dogs inflated this common-sense idea into claiming she was blaming global warming. Hortman attended the 3rd District DFL meeting.
• Ember Reichgott Junge was speculated about by the Minneapolis Observer, but lives outside the district, an awkward position for the former state senate majority leader.
• Lawyer and lobbyist Michael Rothman of Winthrop & Weinstine announced his interest at the 3rd C.D. meeting.
• Rep. Steve Simon (DFL-St. Louis Park) is considering a run. A young, single lawyer with no children (he works at Mike Ciresi's law firm), Simon's in his 2nd term and also already an Assistant Majority Leader (As part of the same class and region, Simon and Hortman are friends). He grew up in the 3rd in Hopkins, but unfortunately he lives slightly outside the 3rd and would have to move a short distance to compete. His legislative district spans the 3rd and 5th districts. Simon also spoke at the 3rd District DFL meeting this week. [By the way, we think Simon currently living outside the present boundaries of the 3rd is irrelevant.]

It took about five minutes for someone to set up an anti-Buck Humphrey blog, The Buck Stops Here. We have to admit, that's some pretty quick negative politickin'. MNPublius.com put out a straw poll which Rep. Hortman was winning on Thursday afternoon, with Luger and Sen. Bonoff close behind.

Rep. Dittrich caught some notice after getting mentioned in Washington Post reporter Chris Cillizza's blog The Fix, alongside Bonoff and Luger. Cillizza speculated that the 3rd C.D. battle is "almost certain to be among the top 20" races nationwide.

Finally, with all due respect for Yom Kippur, which starts this evening, the funniest Third District line we heard was a clever, tongue-in-cheek suggestion: Since Bonoff, Rothman, Simon and Luger are all members of Minneapolis' Temple Israel, it could all be settled with a "Jew-off." Mazel tov!

The 3rd: Who Wins?

To understand the partisan ramifications of who wins the 3rd District in 2008, consider this: The last Democrat to represent the area (despite redistricting, the 3rd has roughly stayed the western metro/suburban/rural area) was Democratic U.S. Rep. Roy Weir, who held the seat from 1948-1960. The seat was then held by Republican U.S. Reps. Clark MacGregor (1960-1970), Bill Frenzel (1970-1990) and Jim Ramstad (1990-2008).

So, which party is better positioned to take a GOP seat held for almost five decades? Certainly Ramstad's wide margins of victory over the years aren't much help, given the DFL has basically conceded the seat as GOP turf. Over the years, the best Rammer did was in 2002 when he got 72.0% of the vote (against DFLer Darryl Stanton) to 2004 when he earned 64.6% (against DFLer Deborah Watts).

Better numbers as possible predictors of 2008 might be the aggregate totals for legislative candidates in 2006. They are:

Senate GOP candidates in the 3rd: 51.7%
Senate DFL candidates in the 3rd: 47.5%
Senate IND candidates in the 3rd: 00.8%

House GOP candidates in the 3rd: 52.4%
House DFL candidates in the 3rd: 47.2%
House IND candidates in the 3rd: 00.4%

Most Republicans think 2006 was the best year Democrats are likely to have in a long time. So, even if 2008 is a great DFL year, any DFL Congressional candidate is going to have to sway four to five percent of the Republicans. But some Democrats think 2008 will be even better for their party, meaning the longstanding GOP advantage in the district has evaporated.

Our first prediction? Despite the numbers, the momentum is with the Democrats. They control the Congress, they'll be hungrier to win after almost 50 years. Perhaps most significant of all, this will be the first time the Democrats will put up a candidate they truly think can win. We think the most interesting aspect to watch will be whether the long-standing "fiscal conservative/social moderate" ideology long attributed to the district still matters, and if it does still matter, does it hold?