In this issue: State Of The Session; Kudos For KSTP; Hatch/Swanson Saga; Quoting Franken; GOP Presidential Wannabes; More Ads Targeting The Legislative Debate; Bits & Pieces...; Lobbyist Watch.
--A collection of insider news and opinion--State Of The SessionOne would never guess that the 2007 legislative session is merely 20 days away from a constitutional adjournment date in a major budget year. The Capitol feels like a tomb. What gives?One of your publishers checked in with the greatest bellwethers of what's happening politically--the legislative staff. The dozen or so surveyed report that "the people," regular Minnesotans who generally call their legislators when they want or don't want something, are silent. No one calls and perhaps more significantly, no group is orchestrating calls to the Capitol on any issues. Unlike recent years, there aren't daily vigils outside the chambers by groups on either social or fiscal issues. The gaggle of lobbyists outside the chambers seems to be half the size of other years. All this ennui makes for what one of the most respected and senior members of the Capitol press corps has dubbed, "the most dreadful session." There's no mo, no excitement, no nothing. Lobbyists stuck in vigils in conference committees also say same. No mo, no excitement, no nothing. That's all the more bizarre because the stage is certainly set for a showdown. Gov. Tim Pawlenty sent letters to all the conference committee chairs providing them with direction on what is and what is not acceptable for his signature. Republicans thought the letters were eloquent (they were highly complimentary of policy agreements between the GOP Gov. and the DFL Legislature); Democrats thought they were obsequious if not obnoxious. Nevertheless, the legislature is formally on notice about what will be vetoed, and at this point, it looks like most of the big bills will be. Pawlenty vetoed the bonding bill this week and he's expected to start acting on the budget bills today. We understand that tonight, Pawlenty will actually sign the first bill sent his way, the Ag and Vets budget bill. However, there are about a half a dozen spending items that are candidates for a line item veto. Worth noting: To date, Pawlenty has never used the line item veto. Going forward, it could well be that the Governor will line item veto the heck out of the budget bills rather than vetoing the entire bills. But, for some bills that simply won't be possible; the health and human services bill is an example. Pawlenty writes that certain major spending increases "cannot be sustained...this is further exacerbated by the back loading of expensive proposals and automatic inflators." The policy side is perhaps more interesting. Pawlenty's letters are very clear about what policy items are not acceptable. Stuff like domestic partner benefits for state government workers and first- and third-party good faith insurance provisions. Who gets the political mileage if the Democrats keep these provisions in the big bills and the Governor vetoes them? Our best guess is that it depends on how fast the returned bills are stripped of the offending policy provisions. Republicans took their hits in the 2006 elections. The only possible losers would seem to be the House Democrats in 2008. Kudos For KSTP The Hubbards' station may be ranked third or fourth in the ratings but it's now number one in terms of public policy impact in Minnesota. That's a role long held by the Star Tribune; but no more. Now, during the critical time when decisions are made, KSTP is the only major news joint in town to run an issue poll. Everyone was talking about it at the Capitol because it seems to be the only barometer of public opinion decision makers will have before the end of the legislative session. As far as we know, there are no other polls in the works. The poll reflects the Minnesota psyche: We want everything but we're nice about it. On all the proposed tax increases, there's good news for both Democrats and Republicans. H ere's the poll along with crosstabs [PDF]. Unfortunately for the legislature, the mixed messages on tax increases could compound the difficulties in striking a compromise. The DFL's Take On The KSTP PollDemocrats conclude that the KSTP poll is proof positive that years of the "no new taxes" mantra seem to have fallen on deaf ears. When queried about the House plan to increase income taxes on those with more than $226,000 in taxable income and on couples, 64% support that and 31% oppose. Approximately the same percentages apply to the Senate plan to increase income taxes on those with $141,000 in taxable income, and couples about twice that (64% support and 35% oppose). And, as KSTP's Tom Hauser and the poll (in the crosstabs) pointed out, the House plan to raise the income tax on couples earning $400,000 or more even has the support of Republicans. The GOP Take On The KSTP PollThe GOP notes that the very same people polled also don't want their taxes increased. Question: "Gov. Tim Pawlenty proposes to balance the budget by increasing spending by about 10% over two years using surplus revenues and no new tax increases." Answer: 65% support and 27% oppose. Perhaps the biggest sucker punch was to those who want to raise taxes to fund transportation needs. A whopping 77% oppose and only 17% support the plan to increase the gas tax by 10 cents a gallon, increase vehicle license tab fees and allow counties to raise sales taxes to fund transportation projects. If that gas tax increase is reduced to a nickel, 59% oppose and 36% support. In House GOP jargon, that means House Republicans expected to vote for a nickel increase--the "soft nickels"--have evaporated. The soft nickels include Reps. Mike Beard (R-Shakopee), Connie Ruth (R-Owatonna), Dan Severson (R-Sauk Rapids) and Steve Sviggum (R-Kenyon). Another way the gas tax question was asked is even more startling. Question: "Are you opposed to any increase in the state gas tax?" 82% said yes and 15% said no. So much for the conventional wisdom, on both sides of the aisle, that a small gas tax increase upheld by some soft nickel House Republicans on a veto override can succeed.The KSTP Poll On Other IssuesThe Minnesota Vikings are considering a plan for a $954-million dollar stadium complex on the current site of the Metrodome. Do you think state funding should or should not be used?
Do you think smoking should be banned from all Minnesota restaurants and bars, with no exemptions? Do you think smoking should be banned in restaurants and bars, but with some exemptions? Or do you think smoking should be allowed in both restaurants and bars? [Chart]
Do you think Minnesota should or should not allow public agencies to grant health benefits to the same-sex partners of their employees? [Chart]
Do you think the state of Minnesota should or should not legally recognize same-sex marriages? [Chart]
Read the full results.Hatch/Swanson SagaThank you Attorney General Lori Swanson, former Attorney General Mike Hatch and AFSCME's Elliot Seide for providing the best political intrigue since the election. There's much to contemplate so let's get started.First, Hatch's decision to resign from the AG's office is perhaps the best political decision that either of them has made since Swanson became the DFL candidate after former DFL Rep. Matt Entenza withdrew from the race. Swanson has been hobbled by the assumption on the part of most Capitol insiders that Hatch has been calling the shots in the office. To your lobbyist publisher who has worked a great deal with Swanson, her communications and legislative director Brian Bergson and other attorneys in the office, this assumption is flat out false. Swanson has been calling the legislative shots, no question about it. Nevertheless, given the force of Hatch's personality, thinking he was running the show was a reasonable assumption.Hatch's departure allows Swanson to emerge from his shadow to carve out her own legacy in the office. And, for those paying close attention, Swanson is off to a great start on the same. Significant policy positions from her office are in play and likely to become law, including new predatory lending prohibitions, making cyber bullying of children and sexual solicitation of children on the Internet crimes, enforcing domestic abuse no contact orders, extending military service members' supplementary relief, and prohibiting the illegal and or unnecessary distribution of Social Security numbers [that's the issue your GOP publisher has been working on for the credit reporting industry]. Second, what exactly is all the fuss about staff departures in the first place? Any change at the top in a political shop always engenders lots of staff changes. Strikes us that AFSME's objections are more about a pi**ing contest between AFSCME's Seide and Mike Hatch. Gossip rampant at the Capitol speaks of retribution: Seide is stirring up trouble for Swanson and Hatch as payback for what happened to Entenza (the outing of his hiring a private investigator to do a number on Hatch).On the other hand, perhaps AFSCME really did want to organize the office (as it has in a number of county attorney's offices including Hennepin, Ramsey and St. Louis). AFSCME has been losing members, unlike MAPE (the Minnesota Association of Professional Employees), which has been gaining membership. Perhaps this is all complicated by the perception that Swanson is too close to MAPE, given top aide Bergson was MAPE's lobbyist before moving to the AG's office.[One interesting sidebar relating to Entenza is that given the DFL blow-out that was the 2006 election, Entenza probably would have survived the PI scandal and beaten the GOP's candidate, former Rep. Jeff Johnson.]Third, there's a strange sexism permeating the whole affair. Swanson, of course, is the first woman to hold the office. Seide seems to be bullying Swanson; Hatch is assumed to have been calling the shots. Swanson is physically diminutive. So much for coming a long way, baby. The fun part for women is that Swanson has held her own, and even trumped the boys. For example, she preempted Seide's staff changes story by having her own press conference and putting her story out there first.Finally, where does the story go from here? The House Republicans pulled several clever punches that could keep the story alive. Under Mason's Rules of Legislative Procedure (which kick in when the Minnesota House rules are silent), legislators may call for an investigation on matters relating to employment. So that's what House Minority Leader Rep. Marty Seifert (R-Marshall) did, making a motion to have the House Commerce & Labor Committee investigate the matter. House Majority Leader Tony Sertich's (DFL-Chisholm) counter was to refer the motion (a weird and questionable motion) to the House Rules Committee. That passed 129-0. Now the question becomes whether the House Rules Committee will take up the matter.And, earlier this week, House Assistant Minority Leader Tom Emmer (R-Delano) sent Swanson a super- broad Government Data Practices Request asking for:
Our understanding is that such a request must be complied with, although the time element of when those documents have to be provided is unclear. If that's the case, heaven only knows what all those documents might contain.The one sure thing is that given the session is a yawner, the media has nothing more interesting to do than swarm the Swanson/Hatch saga.Quoting Franken Republicans obviously believe there's a lot to be gained from exploiting Al Franken's comedy. GOP party chair Ron Carey has said as much: "He's a researchers dream." The question is what is to be gained from using Franken's funnies and from whom?His one-liners and quotes are certainly great material with which to rile up the base and use as a fundraising tool. We wonder, though, if there's any more mileage to be gained from Franken's words beyond that.First, people do understand that Franken was a comedian and will probably not hold against him things he said as a comedian. Second, and more importantly, the people upon whom Franken's quotes are most likely to have a significant effect won't be voting for him anyway. For the rest-- Democrats, Independents, and swing voters--his quotes are more likely to be funny, accurate, irrelevant, or all of the above.The night Franken appeared on David Letterman and even before he announced he'd run against Norm Coleman for U.S. Senate, the state GOP released a Letterman-like "Top Ten Al Franken Over-The-Top, Negative Personal Attacks" list.Calling Coleman " one of the administration's leading butt boys," for example, clearly offends Coleman supporters, but to Democrats' ears, it's funny because they believe it is accurate.With the war in Iraq likely to be the top issue in the election and with no foreseeable light at the end of the tunnel there, it's reasonable to assume that President Bush will remain very unpopular. It's also reasonable to assume that Republican politicians who supported Bush and the war will not be particularly popular.For Independents and swing voters who dislike the war and those who got us into it, saying "most Republican politicians are real jerks" may very well reflect their feelings.Another Republican tactic is to paint Franken as "angry," a charge to which he could be vulnerable because he's capable of coming off that way, as we noted in January.It's a bit of a head-scratcher, though, why Republicans are playing the "who is more Minnesotan" game. Coleman didn't grow up here and though Franken did, he lived most of his adult life elsewhere; it's a wash. But who sounds more Minnesotan? Certainly not Coleman, with his Kennedyesque accent.Still, as we previously noted, Franken played right into Republicans' hands when he said "I like Minnesotans, I always have." It certainly doesn't help his cause when he implies that he's not one of us. Lastly, as demonstrated in a recent Coleman fundraising letter, Republicans are making much of the campaign cash Franken has received from Hollywood. Franken has effectively dismissed the argument by saying, and we paraphrase, I might get contributions from Big Comedy but Coleman gets funding from Big Pharma. That's a perfect example of how Franken should use his humor as a political tool. If Franken can balance his grasp of the issues with clever one-liners, using humor to defang opponents, and refraining from an inclination to attack, he could go a long way.GOP Presidential WannabesSomewhat surprising is how few Minnesota GOP elected officials, financial gurus, or other big shots have committed so far to specific GOP 2008 Presidential aspirants. Certainly GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty's national co-chairmanship of Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) campaign has been high profile. Former GOP Congressman and now D.C. lobbyist Vin Weber has committed to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Wheelock Whitney has signed on as Minnesota Finance Chair for former N.Y.C. Mayor Rudy Guiliani.That's all about to change as the candidates begin rolling into Minnesota to raise money and meet the party opinion leaders. Whitney is set to host a Guiliani fundraiser at his home. GOP phone guru and top-Bush campaign aide Jeff Larson, who has also been a key player in attracting and managing the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, is having an event in mid-May for Romney at the Minneapolis Club. McCain is coming to Minnesota for a fundraiser mid-June.More Ads Targeting The Legislative Debate Three more groups have started ad campaigns related to the legislative session. We've seen the Taxpayers League first billboard; it reads "Liberalism 101 Tax Tax Tax, Spend Spend Spend." You can see an example at their website. Not exactly the their most original message, but they think it will work. Minnesota Transportation AllianceA new group that includes the Minnesota Transportation Alliance (MTA) and other supporters of increasing the gas tax is running radio ads critical of Governor Pawlenty's early indication that he will veto the gas tax increase. The MTA includes the majority of contributors for last fall's "Vote Yes" campaign on the Motor Vehicle Sales Tax. The ads are being produced by Totten Communications, the same firm that did the ads in last fall's campaign. The difference with these ads is that the Minnesota Chamber (the coordinator of last year's campaign) isn't supporting them. The Chamber's position is that any gas tax increase should be approved by referendum. The ads are primarily being run statewide and the current buy is valued at over $200,000. The Minnesota Environmental PartnershipProtecting the Great Outdoors is an initiative of the Minnesota Environmental Partnership (MEP). After the Senate Tax committee dealt the 3/8 of a cent dedication a setback, the MEP decided it was time to apply more pressure to the issue for the amendment. The ads are running statewide (Listen [MP3]). The ad is running in four targeted legislative districts with 200 points of weight. The ad will also run twice a week for the next two weeks on Governor Pawlenty's radio show. Internet ads are soon to come, as well. &nbs p; Long Term Care Imperative [Publishers Note: This organization is a client of Co-Publisher Blois Olson's public relations firm New School Communications.]The Imperative, made up of the Minnesota Health and Housing Alliance and Care Providers of Minnesota, has launched an unprecedented &nb sp; print campaign statewide focusing on the $20 a day per-person- served gap between what the state pays for nursing home care and the cost of providing that care. The ads urges citizens to call on legislators and the Governor to fully fund senior care and to visit their web site.Politics In Minnesota: Bits & Pieces...With the state GOP Congressional District Conventions over, the most interesting business at hand was the heated race between incumbent GOP State Party Chair Ron Carey and challenger Joe Repya. Carey made it to all eight; Repya missed the 1st and the 8th (although his wife, Debra, went to the eighth). Today all nine CD chairs (the 3rd has two co- chairs) signed a letter supporting Carey. That's virtually unprecedented and signifies serious trouble for Repya at next month's GOP State Central Party convention where the race will be decided.A trio of three nationally-recognized government affairs professionals based in Minnesota have formed GOP Convention Strategies, a one-stop shop for companies and trade associations looking to maximize their participation in the 2008 GOP Convention in the Twin Cities. The three are Scott Cottington, who has been named by Roll Call as "one of the 22 consultants who matter" and described by the magazine as "a hidden gem operating from his home base in Minnesota; Steve Knuth, who runs Public Affairs Company (a grassroots/grasstops tactician company); and Elizabeth Blosser, who has extensive political experience all over the map.There's a good reason why advertising guru and Carmichael Lynch CEO Lee Lynch has been so successful. He's got great ideas. His latest relates to his service on the board of Growth and Justice. When Lynch learned that The Daily Show's Jon Stewart was coming to town he bought a big block of tickets to package with a reception to raise money for Growth and Justice. For $250, you get a ticket to the show at the Orpheum and a private reception (at which Stewart is scheduled but not guaranteed to appear). This will also be the first opportunity for new Growth and Justice president Dane Smith to interact with members...and maybe Jon Stewart. Part of the invitation flying around in email (but not linkable here) touts Jon and Dane's "Commonalities...They're both short (sort of). They're both newsmen (sort of). They're both funny (sort of)." Also co-hosting the event besides Lynch and Terry Saario are Julie Corty & Richard Erickson, Chuck Denny, Anne & John Knapp, Laurie & Joel Kramer, Carol Freeman, The Gegax Family Foundation, Sen. Anthony Lourey (DFL-Kerrick) & Marlana Benzie-Lourey, Jan Malcolm, Jennifer Martin, Jane Newman & Amy Lange, Jim Pohlad, Jolita & Dennis Rysdahl, Tina & Archie Smith and Marge & Irv Weiser. More info and how to RSVP for the event.Bill George, former Medtronic, Inc. CEO and chairman, and David Gergen, director of the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, will headline a kick-off celebration for the Center for Integrative Leadership at noon on May 3 at the U of M's Ted Mann Concert Hall. "The Age of Integrative Leadership: A Conversation with David Gergen & Bill George" is free and open to the public.Dr. Steven Miles and University law professor Oren Gross will examine wartime interrogation techniques in "Torture, War, and Medical Ethics." This Home and Away program will be held from 7 to 8:30 p.m. on May 9 in Cowles Auditorium at the Humphrey Institute.The Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs will host the 2007 Hubert H. Humphrey Public Leadership Awards on Wednesday, May 16, at the McNamara Alumni Center. This year's recipients are former U.S. Senator from Missouri John C. Danforth, currently Ambassador to the United Nations; Josie R. Johnson, civil rights leader and educator; Eugene C. Sit, founder and co-chair of the Minnesotans' Military Appreciation Fund; and Harlan Cleveland, former ambassador to NATO and founding dean of the Humphrey Institute. A reception begins at 6 p.m. The dinner and program, including remarks from the award recipients, begins at 7 p.m. For tickets to the scholarship fundraiser, contact Lars Leafblad at mailto:leafblad@umn.edu For any of our readers who raise political funds for candidates, here's some amazing news. South Dakota Democratic U.S. Sen. Tim Johnson suffered a stroke after the last election and has not been on the Senate floor nor has he cast a single vote since then. Amazingly, his campaign raised $665,000 the first quarter of 2007. Must have been by direct mail.