Al Franken

GOP activist Michael Brodkorb, who blogs at Minnesota Democrats Exposed, broke a whopper of a story yesterday:

DFL Senate candidate Al Franken owes a $25,000 penalty to the New York State Workers' Compensation Board for failing to carry workers' compensation insurance for employees of his namesake corporation from 2002 to 2005.

I called Franken campaign aide Andy Barr, yesterday, who told me that Franken's accountant was looking into the matter and that's all he could say at this time. The Star Tribune's Kevin Duchschere got more from Barr: "Campaign spokesman Andy Barr said that neither Franken nor his wife, Franni, were aware of the matter before Tuesday. They have lived in Minneapolis for the past few years and did not know about the state's attempts to reach them in New York City, he said."

Also, Barr said, ""I can categorically deny that there was any attempt to evade responsibility, and I doubt that there was some kind of error that was made, although until we know all the facts I can't say for sure what happened."

The key facts as we know them from Brodkorb and Duchschere: Al Franken Inc. once carried workers compensation insurance (meaning: Franken knew he had to have the insurance); the policy lapsed and Franken didn't renew it; the state of New York found out about it; Franken didn't respond to what presumably had to be multiple notices from the state of New York; and, the state adjudicated a $25,000 penalty to Franken for failure to carry workers compensation insurance.

In 2006, Franken reported a salary of more than $1 million from Al Franken Inc. Meaning: Someone was processing mail at the address listed for Al Franken Inc. If someone was accepting and writing checks for Al Franken Inc., someone was opening the mail and seeing the notices from the state of New York.

Recently I dubbed Al Franken "Ad Hominem Al."

Maybe that should be "Implausible Al."

As I told Barr, yesterday, it is inconceivable to me that someone smart like Franken with U.S. Senate political ambition would blow off years of notices, never mind the final judgment, relating to failure to pay workers compensation.

What a conundrum for all those unions that endorsed Franken. Workers compensation is a bread-and-butter, if not signature, union issue.

Now what do AFSCME Council 5, Education Minnesota and the Service Employees International Union do?

At 26 and 24, the more youthful members of the PIM team have not paid a landline phone bill since our sophomore years in college (2001-2002/2002-2003 respectively) and most likely will never will again. When we look through our contacts, we do not find one friend or peer whose number is a home landline. It seems the landline has gone the way of the typewriter, a relic of a bygone era.

Then why do so many political and social survey pollsters rely exclusively on landline phone numbers and their skewed demographics when conducting public opinion polls? They are cheaper and easier to poll, and the absence of this "cell-only" crowd does not really affect the outcome of most polls and surveys in a statistically relevant way, a 2007 Pew Research Center study found. The cell-only group at the moment is still small enough, and similar enough to its landline-owning demographic equivalents, to only affect surveys by .7% points on average, the Pew Research Center study found.

The 2006 study found that 11.8% of adults have a cell phone as their only phone line. Scott Keeter, one of the authors of the Pew study, estimates that the figure now is more like 14%. The cell-only population tends to be younger, more tech-savvy, less affluent, less likely to be married or a home owner, less conservative, and contain a greater proportion of men and minorities than the landline owning public. But it is growing fast, and will soon be a large enough population that traditional random digit dial (RDD) will not be able to accurately capture the true mood of the public. It would seem that excluding this group would greatly skew the results in races like the DFL Senate battle, where Al Franken and his youthful following would be under-represented against Mike Ciresi. Professor Paul Goren, a Ph.D. in Political Science at the University of Minnesota, assured us this is not the case. Data samples are often weighed following collection to compensate for a demographic that may be absent or disproportionately missing.

Pollsters, aware of the problem, have taken measures to court the ever-growing cell-only population, such as $10 to reimburse the time respondents spend burning their minutes. Outside of the inherent cost associated with cell phone dialing, further impediments arise. Federal law prohibits the use of automated dialing services when contacting cell users so each number must be dialed manually, and contact rates tend to be be much lower when dialing cell samples (how many people answer their phones when a strange number pops up?). The cost of the cell-only polls becomes more expensive, 2.4 times as costly as their landline brethren.

Keeter acknowledges the future of polling will look much different than it does now. In upcoming elections he expects Internet-based polling to become more popular, with access to the Web to be provided for those who lack a connection. There is also no word yet on the effects of new media like the social-networking site Facebook or the video-sharing YouTube on polls, but most experts agree the effect will be minimum at best.

Today's Wall Street Journal has a front page story, "Labor Makes Big Comeback in '08 Races." That's certainly true in the Minnesota U.S. Senate race. It's a story we've been tracking for months, in A Tale of Two AFSCMEs, A Tale, Chapter Two and A Tale, Chapter Three.

This week, Education Minnesota endorsed DFL U.S. Senate contender Al Franken over Mike Ciresi, the other top contender in the race. The endorsement of the state's biggest union (70,000-plus members) is huge. Add the endorsement of AFCME Council 5, at 43,000 members, and now you're talking super huge. These top two state unions are highly motivated, and that will be tough, but not insurmountable, to the Ciresi team. Ciresi earned the endorsement of AFCME Council 65, which boasts 11,000-plus members.

Dueling House Parties

The real battlefields of the DFL endorsing contest to run against GOP U.S. Senator Norm Coleman are being held in the living rooms of DFL activist homes. In PIM's view, this is a good process: Democrats have the opportunity to judge the candidates up close and personal. We sent Pam Steinle to the front lines, armed with PIM business cards and escorted by her DFL-leaning cousin, Renee Mueller Steinle. What follows are Pam’s observations (not to be confused with scientific comparisons), nonetheless from anecdotal reports we’ve heard elsewhere, she is right on target.

I, a Republican armed with my Politics in Minnesota business cards, rode alongside my undecided cousin, Renee, into delegate hunting grounds. Renee had been conveniently invited to both a Franken and Ciresi meet and greet event, which were located in her neighborhood and a mere week apart. She cleared my presence at both events with the reception hosts: Franken’s December 6 event, hosted by Roann Cramer and David Zimmerman, which was specifically designated as a meet and greet event; and Ciresi’s December 12 reception, hosted by Laurie and Phil Seiff and Kathy and Vince Moccio, that strongly encouraged campaign donations on the invitation.

Our Tale of Two AFSCMEs continues. AFSCME Council 65's executive director, Steve Preble, back at AFSCME Council 5:

“While one can appreciate the sharp wit of a candidate [Al Franken], we feel a solid platform on middle class issues, honest answers to tough questions and a career track record of victories for middle class Americans and all Minnesotans is more important when choosing a United States Senator...We are proud to endorse Mike Ciresi, he is the best candidate to defeat Norm Coleman and represent us in the U.S. Senate.”

And Leslie Sandberg, communications director for the Mike Ciresi campaign:

"Mr. [Eliot] Seide's comments should be put in context of his endorsement of one of Mike's challengers. Momentum is with the Ciresi campaign as the polls and delegate count clearly show. We are consistently the leading Democrat in the polls and are not burdened with the extremely high negatives Mike's challenger has. Mike is a demonstrated leader in Minnesota, where he has lived, been educated, and worked his entire life. He has made life better for all Minnesotans through his professional and philanthropic work. Powerful special interests don't laugh when they hear he's coming -- they know they will be held accountable and will have to change their ways."

The big lesson that PIM draws from the Tale is that AFSCME endorsements matter hugely for DFL candidates. Our informal survey, gleaned from questioning key Democrats the last week, distills down to this: If the DFL endorsing contest was held today, Franken would probably win, however, Ciresi has the momentum. Now, much more than in the past, Democrats are wondering whether Franken can withstand the scrutiny in places like Michael Brodkorb's Minnesota Democrats Exposed of every off-color joke or comment Franken has ever made.

Last week I wrote that AFSCME Council 65's endorsement of Mike Ciresi instead of Al Franken in the DFL U.S. Senate endorsing contest was a big win for Ciresi. Eliot Seide, the executive director of the other AFSCME group, Council 5, begs to differ. In a phone conversation, Seide called Council 65's endorsement "a last gasp of the Ciresi campaign." Here's the statement, verbatim, that Seide sent to PIM:

"The struggling Ciresi Campaign is suggesting that the AFSCME Council 65 endorsement will keep their candidate alive. It won’t. AFSCME Council 5 has the capacity to help Al Franken get across the finish line. We’re one of the largest and most politically active unions with 43,000 members in 87 counties throughout Minnesota. Our member-driven endorsement comes with a war chest and an army of 1000 volunteers dedicated to electing Al Franken and restoring the middle class. Because of our track record, the media calls us 'politically potent.' With our support, Al Franken is in the strongest position to win the DFL endorsement and general election. Our members endorsed Al Franken because he’s a lifelong union member who grew up in Minnesota and will use sharp wit, hard work and progressive convictions to restore the middle class."

OK, DFL readers, your turn. What do the dueling AFSCME endorsements mean to the candidates' campaigns?

The Star Tribune's Pat Lopez has the latest twist in Minnesota DFL union politics:

"One of the state's most powerful labor groups has split its U.S. Senate endorsement between Democrats Mike Ciresi and Al Franken. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 65, which represents 13,000 outstate Minnesota workers, announced its backing of Ciresi, an attorney, on Tuesday. Earlier, Council 5, with 43,000 members in the Twin Cities and Duluth, went for Franken, a comedian. 'I think it's the first time that's happened,' said Steve Giorgi, assistant director for AFSCME Council 65. The decision was a little awkward, he said, because Franken kicked off his campaign at the Council 65 offices in Nisswa."

Sheer member numbers would seem to dictate that Franken got the better end of the AFSCME deal. But not so fast. Union types we talked to yesterday said that AFSCME Council 65 -- make that "Greater Minnesota Council 65" -- might have a larger impact on the endorsing delegate selection process (the only process that matters) because its members don't have to compete with as many other DFL interest groups at precinct caucuses. There's also a sense that the Council 65 Ciresi endorsement came from its members, and wasn't dictated by leadership as much as the endorsement of Franken by Council 5.

Franken has acquired a number of union endorsements, although none of these matter as much as AFSCME. Picking up Council 65 was big for Ciresi.

Still to weigh in are the two other heavy hitters in DFL endorsing circles: Education Minnesota and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU).

This week's issue of New York magazine features a must-read article on Al Franken, the premise of which is whether politics and comedy can co-exist.

Writer Ariel Levy describes Franken as a "cartoon bullfrog." Photographer Chris Buck wonderfully captures Al standing in a barn with cows and Al standing before a campaign event buffet where it looks like he just took a spoon-whack of that Minnesota classic, wild rice and cream of mushroom soup hotdish. [For the record, Norm Coleman would look equally ridiculous in both photos.]

The article anecdotally describes the fine line Franken must draw between his old satirical self and his new serious U.S. Senate candidate self. My favorite story and one that best captures Franken's dilemma is about New Ulm and and the town's iconic statue, Hermann the German:

"'I was in New Ulm, Minnesota, to do a Senate district dinner, so I do it in this park where they have a statue to Herman [stet] the German. Now, Herman the German was an actual historical figure.' He waits a beat. 'I guess.' And then he gives me a big laugh. 'They told me he was, like, a Hun or something, and there’s this beautiful statue there to Herman the German. So I just thought of the dumbest joke, which was I grew up in St. Louis Park—which is the most Jewish suburb of Minneapolis, and by that I mean 25 or 30 percent Jewish, but in Minnesota that’s a lot of Jews. Yeah. So I thought of this joke saying, ‘Well, you have Herman the German, and I grew up in St. Louis Park, where we have a statue of Stu the Jew.’ Okay. Dumb joke, almost really not worth doing, except it’s not worth not doing, except that I saw that there was a Coleman tracker there, a guy taping me, and I’m going, like, okay, what are they going to do with it? Are they going to say that I’m somehow suggesting that New Ulm is anti-Semitic? What are they gonna do with this?'"

What, indeed.

One thing I always watch in political candidates is body language. Entrepreneur.com has a story about seven subtle cues that often mean a person isn't being completely honest. The clues are provided in a business context, but they certainly can be applied to people running for office. Here's my favorite:

"Nose touch: We have erectile tissues in our noses, which engorge with blood when we lie. This causes a tingling or itching sensation that requires a nose touch to satisfy. The absence of a nose touch doesn't guarantee truth, but the presence of a nose touch often means deception. Of course, sometimes a person will touch his or her nose because of a non-deceptive cause, such as a cold. With some practice, you can quickly learn to distinguish a deceptive nose touch from something innocent."

There you go, Democrats in Minnesota, keep your eyes on the noses of the DFL candidates seeking your endorsement to run against U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman (R). Come to think of it, you might want to closely monitor the nose of one particular candidate, the one on Al Franken.

Wired magazine reported yesterday that CalTech graduate student Virgil Griffith matched every one of the millions of 'anonymous edits' on the popular reference website Wikipedia to the organizations where the edits originated. Every anonymous Wiki edit created an IP address record, and he simply matched those IP addresses to available lists of who controls them. He quickly discovered that everyone from the Central Intelligence Agency to the New York Times and the Church of Scientology have anonymously changed entries, generally to quietly promote their respective organizations' agendas and PR interests, or else delete embarrassing material. (You can try Griffith's lookup system yourself!)

The Minnesota angle is that someone on the Fox News Channel computer network (working from IP 12.167.224.228) changed several entries about U.S. Senate candidate Al Franken, back when he was hosting a show on the Air America network. Staff at the Franken campaign told PIM, "We are beginning to suspect the Fox News Channel has something of a bias when it comes to Al."

Originally, Franken's entry said:

Reflecting later on the lawsuit during an interview on the [[National Public Radio]] program ''[[Fresh Air]]'' on [[September 3]], [[2003]], Franken said that Fox's case against him was "literally laughed out of court" and that "wholly (holy) without merit" is a good characterization of Fox News itself.

The Fox staffer changed it (here's the exact revision):

Reflecting later on the lawsuit during an interview on the liberal [[National Public Radio]] program ''[[Fresh Air]]'' on [[September 3]], [[2003]], Franken said that Fox's case against him was the best thing to happen to his book sales.

The Brit Hume Wiki entry once contained:

Many groups and commentators, including [[Media Matters for America]], and liberal broadcasters [[Al Franken]], and [[Keith Olbermann]], have claimed that Hume distorted Roosevelt’s views.

but the same Fox terminal changed it to

Many groups and commentators, including [[Media Matters for America]], and liberal broadcasters [[Al Franken]], and [[Keith Olbermann]], have claimed that Hume distorted Roosevelt’s views in an attempt to ride Mr. Hume’s coat tails in the ratings race as Mr. Hume hosts the highest rated political program on cable television.

More fun stuff below the fold...