Mike Ciresi
The Future Of Polling
At 26 and 24, the more youthful members of the PIM team have not paid a landline phone bill since our sophomore years in college (2001-2002/2002-2003 respectively) and most likely will never will again. When we look through our contacts, we do not find one friend or peer whose number is a home landline. It seems the landline has gone the way of the typewriter, a relic of a bygone era.
Then why do so many political and social survey pollsters rely exclusively on landline phone numbers and their skewed demographics when conducting public opinion polls? They are cheaper and easier to poll, and the absence of this "cell-only" crowd does not really affect the outcome of most polls and surveys in a statistically relevant way, a 2007 Pew Research Center study found. The cell-only group at the moment is still small enough, and similar enough to its landline-owning demographic equivalents, to only affect surveys by .7% points on average, the Pew Research Center study found.
The 2006 study found that 11.8% of adults have a cell phone as their only phone line. Scott Keeter, one of the authors of the Pew study, estimates that the figure now is more like 14%. The cell-only population tends to be younger, more tech-savvy, less affluent, less likely to be married or a home owner, less conservative, and contain a greater proportion of men and minorities than the landline owning public. But it is growing fast, and will soon be a large enough population that traditional random digit dial (RDD) will not be able to accurately capture the true mood of the public. It would seem that excluding this group would greatly skew the results in races like the DFL Senate battle, where Al Franken and his youthful following would be under-represented against Mike Ciresi. Professor Paul Goren, a Ph.D. in Political Science at the University of Minnesota, assured us this is not the case. Data samples are often weighed following collection to compensate for a demographic that may be absent or disproportionately missing.
Pollsters, aware of the problem, have taken measures to court the ever-growing cell-only population, such as $10 to reimburse the time respondents spend burning their minutes. Outside of the inherent cost associated with cell phone dialing, further impediments arise. Federal law prohibits the use of automated dialing services when contacting cell users so each number must be dialed manually, and contact rates tend to be be much lower when dialing cell samples (how many people answer their phones when a strange number pops up?). The cost of the cell-only polls becomes more expensive, 2.4 times as costly as their landline brethren.
Keeter acknowledges the future of polling will look much different than it does now. In upcoming elections he expects Internet-based polling to become more popular, with access to the Web to be provided for those who lack a connection. There is also no word yet on the effects of new media like the social-networking site Facebook or the video-sharing YouTube on polls, but most experts agree the effect will be minimum at best.
Big Win for Franken
This week, Education Minnesota endorsed DFL U.S. Senate contender Al Franken over Mike Ciresi, the other top contender in the race. The endorsement of the state's biggest union (70,000-plus members) is huge. Add the endorsement of AFCME Council 5, at 43,000 members, and now you're talking super huge. These top two state unions are highly motivated, and that will be tough, but not insurmountable, to the Ciresi team. Ciresi earned the endorsement of AFCME Council 65, which boasts 11,000-plus members.
Dueling House Parties
The real battlefields of the DFL endorsing contest to run against GOP U.S. Senator Norm Coleman are being held in the living rooms of DFL activist homes. In PIM's view, this is a good process: Democrats have the opportunity to judge the candidates up close and personal. We sent Pam Steinle to the front lines, armed with PIM business cards and escorted by her DFL-leaning cousin, Renee Mueller Steinle. What follows are Pam’s observations (not to be confused with scientific comparisons), nonetheless from anecdotal reports we’ve heard elsewhere, she is right on target.
I, a Republican armed with my Politics in Minnesota business cards, rode alongside my undecided cousin, Renee, into delegate hunting grounds. Renee had been conveniently invited to both a Franken and Ciresi meet and greet event, which were located in her neighborhood and a mere week apart. She cleared my presence at both events with the reception hosts: Franken’s December 6 event, hosted by Roann Cramer and David Zimmerman, which was specifically designated as a meet and greet event; and Ciresi’s December 12 reception, hosted by Laurie and Phil Seiff and Kathy and Vince Moccio, that strongly encouraged campaign donations on the invitation.
A Tale of Two AFSCMEs: Chapter Three
“While one can appreciate the sharp wit of a candidate [Al Franken], we feel a solid platform on middle class issues, honest answers to tough questions and a career track record of victories for middle class Americans and all Minnesotans is more important when choosing a United States Senator...We are proud to endorse Mike Ciresi, he is the best candidate to defeat Norm Coleman and represent us in the U.S. Senate.”
And Leslie Sandberg, communications director for the Mike Ciresi campaign:
"Mr. [Eliot] Seide's comments should be put in context of his endorsement of one of Mike's challengers. Momentum is with the Ciresi campaign as the polls and delegate count clearly show. We are consistently the leading Democrat in the polls and are not burdened with the extremely high negatives Mike's challenger has. Mike is a demonstrated leader in Minnesota, where he has lived, been educated, and worked his entire life. He has made life better for all Minnesotans through his professional and philanthropic work. Powerful special interests don't laugh when they hear he's coming -- they know they will be held accountable and will have to change their ways."
The big lesson that PIM draws from the Tale is that AFSCME endorsements matter hugely for DFL candidates. Our informal survey, gleaned from questioning key Democrats the last week, distills down to this: If the DFL endorsing contest was held today, Franken would probably win, however, Ciresi has the momentum. Now, much more than in the past, Democrats are wondering whether Franken can withstand the scrutiny in places like Michael Brodkorb's Minnesota Democrats Exposed of every off-color joke or comment Franken has ever made.
A Tale of Two AFSCMEs: Chapter Two
"The struggling Ciresi Campaign is
suggesting that the AFSCME Council 65 endorsement will keep their candidate
alive. It won’t. AFSCME Council 5 has the capacity to
help Al Franken get across the finish line. We’re one of the largest and most
politically active unions with 43,000 members in 87 counties throughout
OK, DFL readers, your turn. What do the dueling AFSCME endorsements mean to the candidates' campaigns?
A Tale of Two AFSCMEs
The Star Tribune's Pat Lopez has the latest twist in Minnesota DFL union politics:
"One of the state's most powerful labor groups has split its U.S. Senate endorsement between Democrats Mike Ciresi and Al Franken. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 65, which represents 13,000 outstate Minnesota workers, announced its backing of Ciresi, an attorney, on Tuesday. Earlier, Council 5, with 43,000 members in the Twin Cities and Duluth, went for Franken, a comedian. 'I think it's the first time that's happened,' said Steve Giorgi, assistant director for AFSCME Council 65. The decision was a little awkward, he said, because Franken kicked off his campaign at the Council 65 offices in Nisswa."
Sheer member numbers would seem to dictate that Franken got the better end of the AFSCME deal. But not so fast. Union types we talked to yesterday said that AFSCME Council 65 -- make that "Greater Minnesota Council 65" -- might have a larger impact on the endorsing delegate selection process (the only process that matters) because its members don't have to compete with as many other DFL interest groups at precinct caucuses. There's also a sense that the Council 65 Ciresi endorsement came from its members, and wasn't dictated by leadership as much as the endorsement of Franken by Council 5.
Franken has acquired a number of union endorsements, although none of these matter as much as AFSCME. Picking up Council 65 was big for Ciresi.Still to weigh in are the two other heavy hitters in DFL endorsing circles: Education Minnesota and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU).
Politics in Minnesota: The Weekly Report - Vol. 3, Issue 5 - 7/27/2007
New Office Opening Mike Ciresi for Senate
New Office Opening for Mike Ciresi
Date: July 17, 2007 at 04:30 PM
Come in and visit our new office at 2400 University Ave W in St Paul! You can’t miss it!
Refreshments and good conversation will be served!
For more information or directions, please call our office at 651-695-8888. We hope to see you there!
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