Politics in Minnesota: The Weekly Report - Vol. 2, Issue 40 - 4/12/2007

In this issue: A Rumble For Republicans? The Moon Is Not In The Seventh House & Jupiter Did Not Align With Mars...; The Mid-Session Ad War; Minnesotans Against Fraud & Higher Insurance Costs; Watch For Federal Campaign Finance Reports In The Next Week; Senate DFL Freshmen Should Be More Careful; The Ghost Of Dallas Sams; Copycat Arnold; Bits & Pieces...; Lobbyist Watch

A Rumble For Republicans?

"GI Joe wants to become GOP Joe." (Kudos to St. Paul Pioneer Press' Bill Salisbury for the best opening line in a political story we've read in years.)

Long-time GOP activist Joe Repya’s entrance into the race for GOP State Party Chair against incumbent GOP Chair Ron Carey creates one of the most fascinating party chair races in GOP state party history. Traditionally, these races are super inside baseball party affairs that only warrant one paragraph newspaper stories after the contest has been decided. Not so with Repya. We bet there has never been this much coverage of a guy merely announcing he's running for state party chair. To those who don't run in GOP Party circles, it would seem Repya has the advantage right out of the box.

Repya's pitch is that the 2006 GOP election debacle was Carey's fault and that as a former lieutenant colonel, he brings a strong sense of military responsibility to the job. That means get the job done or leave the job. Repya wants to form Camp Reagan, modeled after the successful Camp Wellstone organized by Democrats to train candidates and party activists. He would also tie GOP staff pay to election results: No wins, no bonus. Perhaps Repya's biggest asset is that he has been tried and tested in the media, staunchly defending the Bush Administration. He became the go-to guy for local commentary on the Iraq War for a number of stations. And Repya also didn't just talk the talk, he walked the walk, voluntarily coming out of retirement after 9/11 and serving for two years, including a chunk of time in Baghdad.

Despite the major GOP losses in 2006, Carey stands in fairly good stead as the incumbent. In a terrible year, he led the party in keeping the governor's office and the 6th Congressional District in GOP hands. Both Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Sen. Norm Coleman officially endorsed Carey months ago. Worth noting is that both Pawlenty and Coleman had endorsed then-incumbent chair Ron Eibensteiner four years ago and yet Carey still beat Eibensteiner. Carey successfully portrayed Eibensteiner as out of touch with the party rank and file. Since then, Carey has stayed in close touch with party insiders and they have seen him work in the trenches. This may be the most salient factor in the race: Carey knows the 345 GOP insiders who will vote in the party's state central meeting in June and Repya does not. Carey has been busy locking down bodies on his side since he first caught wind of Repya's candidacy.

Certainly Repya is exciting to demoralized Republicans. But the GOP masses who read about Repya in newspapers and on his website (GopJoe.org) don't get to vote. Unclear at this point is how many actual state central delegates have committed to Carey. It's highly unusual for people who have committed to change their minds, although Repya may be uniquely positioned to do exactly that.

The Moon Is Not In The Seventh House & Jupiter Did Not Align With Mars...

Spring break traditionally serves as the reality check for what legislators are planning to do on the major issues as they encounter constituents in their neighborhoods, local stores and places of worship. One of your publishers checked in with nearly 30 legislators on Tuesday to find out what the folks back home said this year. Apparently, Democrats took their spring breaks on Venus and Republicans went to Mars.

Democrats say not only did they take no flak but that they didn't hear a thing from anyone protesting tax increases. Other legislators had time to figure out exactly what the proposed increases meant to their districts. For example, Rep. John Ward (DFL-Brainerd) figures only about 100 residents in his district would be subject to the Senate's proposed new top-tier income tax rate of 9.7% (up from the current rate of 7.85%) on couples making more than $250,000 and singles, $141,000. Republicans, on the other hand, report they heard nothing but derisive laughter and "you've got to be kidding me" from their constituents about the slew of proposed new taxes and tax increases.

All of this certainly doesn't bode well for an easy resolution of the major budget and tax issues. Other factors compound the dissonance. One is what the GOP thinks is the DFL's weird obsession over Gov. Tim Pawlenty's slim 21,000-vote margin of victory last fall. Democrats think the close election somehow hobbles Pawlenty at the Capitol. Republicans aren't sure which tired old adage to invoke first to counter that thinking. "Close only counts in horseshoes" or "To the victor go the spoils?"

Republicans think perhaps it's time for Democrats to get over the fact they lost the governorship and the power that goes with the office. That power does not include having to compromise on core issues like raising taxes. Perhaps this compromise thinking on the part of the DFL is a Jesse Ventura hangover. In those years, "compromise" meant dividing the pie three ways, where the Independent Ventura got something, as did the GOP House and the DFL Senate. Prior to that, no matter what the party breakdown was in the Legislature and the Governor's office, the fact is that the Governor--if he had the votes--got his way.

Your GOP publisher says, "Make no mistake. Pawlenty will not sign any tax increases. He's Governor. That's his prerogative. By one vote or 21,000." Your DFL publishers say, "No way. Pawlenty will have to compromise and either sign a bill which contains some tax increase or let one become law without a signature."

The other complicating factor is an amalgamation of the petty, personal and political. The petty: Democrats are sticking policy things in omnibus finance bills that they know full well are deal-breakers for the Governor. These include issues like in-state tuition for immigrants (the so-called "Dream Act") and state government benefits for the domestic partners of state workers. The Pawlenty team notes that the Governor purposely took deal-breaker issues for Democrats off the table, like putting immigration status on drivers' licenses and gay marriage.

The personal: If we had a dime for every legislator who has commented on how much Sen. Maj. Leader Larry Pogemiller (DFL-Minneapolis) dislikes Pawlenty, we'd head to the St. Paul Grill for a steak. For the record, we have never asked Pogemiller if this is true.

Finally, the political: Who gets the blame if there's an impasse and a special session? From all reports we've heard, Pogemiller will stand firm on tax increases. This ticks off some House Democrats who face reelection next year. And they're right. If there's an impasse, the people who really get hurt are the DFL members of the House. The biggest miscalculation Democrats seem to be making is that Pawlenty is hurt by a stalemate. That's dead wrong. What could be better for a GOP Governor on the national stage than standing firm against tax increases in a budget surplus environment? Only stories about the same in national media.

The Mid-Session Ad War

Full-time campaigning on issues has arrived and set up permanent residence on Minnesota's airwaves. Here is a short rundown of the ads we know are airing that are aimed at influencing the legislative session.

Clean Energy Minnesota
A coalition of environmental groups, Clean Energy Minnesota is urging legislative leadership and targeted legislators to support the Global Warming Mitigation Act. The Twin Cities ads are targeting Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-Minneapolis), Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller (DFL-Minneapolis) and Governor Pawlenty.

In other parts of the state they are targeting Senators Yvonne Prettner Solon (DFL-Duluth), Jim Vickerman (DFL-Worthington), Dan Sparks (DFL-Austin) and Julie Rosen (R-Fairmont).

Listen to the ads:

• Economy [MP3]
• Future [MP3]

Taxpayers League of Minnesota
The leading conservative group in the state is gearing up to launch a massive mail, newspaper, and billboard campaign unlike anything else they have done. While the actual pieces are not yet available, here's what the first round from the Phil Krinkie and David Strom-led group will look like:

• 70,000 pieces of mail
• 500,000 newspaper ads
• Billboards throughout the state

The League is likely waiting to launch radio or television until later in the session. The group gets a much needed boost from DFLers' tax proposals from DFLers; after the last election and couple of sessions, they were looking weak. Nothing like a few billion in new tax proposals to motivate your supporters to come home.

Minnesotans Against Fraud & Higher Insurance Costs

[PIM Co-Publisher Blois Olson's PR firm, New School Communications, is working on this issue on behalf of the above mentioned coalition.]

A major legislative effort, with leadership in both houses authoring the bill, from the Minnesota Trial Lawyers Association has gotten a major reaction from the business community, including Chambers of Commerce, and Insurance interests.

The ads and mailings that the group is running are targeted at freshman and moderate members of the House and Senate about legislation which would allow two lawsuits to be filed for each case when any insurance is involved. The coalition launched the campaign because DFL legislative leadership have all signed on to the legislation.

Radio ads and direct mail are being used in the Twin Cities and targeted districts throughout the state.

Watch For Federal Campaign Finance Reports In The Next Week

April 15 is the deadline for federal candidates to submit their campaign finance reports to the Federal Election Commission. There are a few things to look for as these reports are published on the FEC's Web site.

Congressman Tim Walz's report will show us whether he has raised enough money to scare national and Minnesota Republicans or if he is spending too much time traveling the First Congressional District. Al Franken's report will either show a large number of Minnesota donors or a lot of Hollywood and New York money. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann's report may determine if Democrats will seriously look for a challenger for the Sixth District in 2008. Democratic Congressmen Jim Oberstar and Collin Peterson's campaign finance reports will show us if large national PACs are contributing to these powerful committee chairmen. And Republican Congressman John Kline's report will give us a glimpse of how tough his reelection may be in 2008.

In the coming weeks, we will examine these campaign finance reports and look at their impact on the 2008 elections.

Senate DFL Freshmen Should Be More Careful

We are surprised by several Senate roll call votes on controversial bills and amendments. Many of the Senate DFL’s newest members come from super-volatile (if not actually Republican) districts, yet many of their roll call votes are more in tune with those of members from safe DFL or urban DFL districts. There is, of course, no such thing as an urban GOP district in Minnesota.

We count nine suburban and rural DFL freshmen who need to be careful in their voting: Kathy Saltzman (Woodbury), Jim Carlson (Eagan), John Doll (Burnsville), Sandy Rummel (White Bear Lake), Ann Lynch (Rochester), Mary Olson (Bemidji), Sharon Erickson Ropes (Winona), Dan Skogen (Hewitt) and Rick Olseen (Harris). Many of these members were elected because of the national Democratic wave and too many wrong votes can sweep these members back out of office.

Take the smoking ban, for example. There was an amendment by smoking ban opponents to ban the sale of tobacco products in the state. Lynch and Doll voted yes. On final passage of the bill, we question the decisions of Olseen, Skogen, and Olson to vote in favor of the bill. They represent conservative, working class districts, and their votes may come back to haunt them.

We also question the logic of eight of these Senators voting in favor of a gas and metro-wide sales tax increase that will never become law. Only Olson had the foresight to vote no. Many of these members should have joined Olson and Sen. Tom Bakk (DFL-Cook) in voting no and supporting a smaller gas tax increase. Everyone knows the governor would never sign it and an override won’t happen. With a healthy vote margin of 42-24 on final passage, these eight members could have voted no and the bill would have still passed.

In the House, Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-Minneapolis) and Majority Leader Tony Sertich (DFL-Chisholm) did a much better job of counting votes and allowing vulnerable members to flake off on controversial amendments and final passage on their transportation bill. The House still passed their transportation bill and vulnerable House DFLers were allowed a pass.

We don’t want to completely fault the Senate DFL freshmen for their votes. We put much of the blame on Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller (DFL-Minneapolis). His decision to have five of six freshmen as Senate whips puzzles many legislative and political observers. It wasn’t until the vote on the Senate’s income tax hike [before Easter recess] that Pogemiller encouraged his freshmen to vote against leadership. But even in that vote, Olson, Olseen, Carlson and Erickson Ropes voted to increase taxes.

The Ghost Of Dallas Sams

Democrats were appalled at the debate on the Senate health and human services omnibus and deficiency bills. Sens. Betsy Wergin (R-Princeton), Mike Jungbauer (R-East Bethel) and Claire Robling (R-Jordan) invoked the name of the late Sen. Dallas Sams (DFL-Staples) during several pro-life amendments to fund the Positive Alternatives Grant Program.

Sams, a dedicated pro-life Democrat, passed away in March after a long stint with cancer. He was instrumental in creating the program during the previous legislative session.

Democrats were offended that, rather than making a legitimate case for the program, Senate Republicans and conservative groups invoked Sams to advance their agenda when only six months ago they spent considerable money to defeat him.

Copycat Arnold

Gov. Tim Pawlenty's trade mission to India has been set for late October. On the China trade mission led by Pawlenty in 2005, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and a California delegation followed the exact same itinerary and arrived in the country the day Minnesota left.

The same thing will happen in India: Arnold and the Californians will go to New Delhi, Bangalore and Mumbai right after Pawlenty and the Minnesotans.

More than 150 people went on the China trip; the India trip will be limited to about 30 people. The mission is open to all Minnesota companies that are either just beginning to consider exporting to India or are currently exporting to India but wish to acquire addition information and business contacts to expand their presence there. Companies from all industries are invited to apply. However, the Minnesota Trade Office will eventually focus the mission on two or three industry sectors, depending on the types of companies that apply. The trip is sure to be productive and come off without a hitch under the masterful planning and coordination conducted by Tony Lorusso, executive director of the Minnesota Trade Office. PIM Publisher Janecek went on the China trip.

You can read more about the trip and how to apply at ExportMinnesota.com [Word].

Politics In Minnesota: Bits & Pieces...

We have it on good authority that former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton has hired a staffer to begin organizing a campaign for governor in 2010. Dayton, who also is leading the Hillary Clinton for President effort in Minnesota, will no doubt have a full DFL field with which to contend since Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner filed her campaign committee last week and generated strong press for such an early move.

U.S. Senate candidate Al Franken is making the rounds again. He will be appearing on CNN's Larry King Live tonight at 8 p.m. CST. Franken is also speaking at the University of St. Thomas on Thursday, April 12, at 12 p.m. in the OEC auditorium. The event is sponsored by the UST College Dems and is open to the public.

Natalie Fedie has returned to St. Paul city government where she's working as the marketing and media relations manager for the Public Works Department.

Senator John C. Danforth, former UN Ambassador, will be honored by the Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs with a Hubert H. Humphrey Leadership Award on May 16. The gala dinner is also a student scholarship fundraising event. Tickets are $125. Former NATO Ambassador Harlan Cleveland, civil rights leader Josie Johnson and philanthropist Eugene Sit will also receive honors this year.

Conservative baseball enthusiast and commentator George Will hosts the Center of the American Experiment's 2007 Annual Dinner on May 17. The Experiment notes that a event seat at the "Chairman Table" goes for a mere $25,000, including a photo! But just like the Humphrey institute, regular seats are $125.