Politics in Minnesota: The Weekly Report - Vol. 1, Issue 3 - 5/13/2005

In this issue: Lots to Ponder in Minnesota Poll, Coming Soon: Environmentalists for Pawlenty?, DFL Convention Showdown in the City of the Lakes, DFL Chair Race, Bits & Pieces..., Lobbyist Watch, The People: Geof the Chef, 20 Years Ago, The Coming Week In Other Media, Setting The Record Straight

Welcome to Volume 1, Issue 3 of PolitcsInMinnesota.com. First things first, we mean what we say up there on the masthead: We intend to build Minnesota's premier public affairs news service. We'll bring you the public affairs information you cannot find anywhere else. To do that, we'll be rolling out a series of news products. Below is our first one: Politics In Minnesota: The Weekly Report which you can expect to receive every Friday.

And, do please give us your feedback at the e-mail addresses provided at the end of this report.

Sarah Janecek and Blois Olson

Politics In Minnesota: The Stories
--A collection of insider news and opinion--

Lots to Ponder in Minnesota Poll

This past week the Star Tribune, in its Minnesota Poll, rolled out a series of new stats measuring public opinion. The results show a somewhat stunning amount of volatility among the public on the issues, but not toward those they elected to decide things.

Perhaps most striking was the 10 percent increase from a year ago in people who oppose legalizing gay marriage, with 52 percent of Minnesotans now in opposition while only 38 percent favor it. What drives the 10 percent shift? The consensus among activists on both sides of the issue is that groups opposing gay marriage have kept up their fight and have been hammering the issue, while the gay and lesbian community has not because it's not their number one issue. Some gays and lesbians view it as an issue that has been foisted upon them.

Next up is the gas tax, and make no mistake, the new Minnesota Poll numbers had a big impact on the House voting (with the help of 10 Republicans) to increase the gas tax 10 cents. The new finding that 55 percent of Minnesotans oppose increasing the gas tax took much of the steam out of the idea that the easy out on the issue was to toss it to the voters in a constitutional amendment next year. Given public sentiment right now, that amendment would surely fail. Thus, a new sense of urgency for those who support a gas tax increase--better do it this year, and make it big, because who knows how long it will be before we can get another one (the last increase was in 1988). And, we'd be remiss in not noting the political courage of legislators who support the massive 10-cent increase now, given that the poll found that only two in five (41 percent) would be willing to raise the gas tax now.

On to spending and taxes. Fifty-three percent of Minnesotans want to balance the state budget via a combination of spending cuts, tax increases and fees. Not much to work with there for legislators trying to figure out exactly what to do, although a major development in the numbers was that support for holding the line on taxes grew from 30 percent to 39 percent in the last five months. Another was the kick in the pants--but maybe not enough to hurt--in the idea that increasing gambling is the right thing to do. The poll found that 57 percent favor a racino, down from 70 percent two years ago. But another valid view is that an overriding "no new taxes" sentiment is waning.

Finally, the lack of volatility toward the pols. The Star Tribune's Dane Smith summed it up most succinctly, "The line of scrimmage hasn't moved much since January." During the almost five months the Legislature has been in session, voters haven't moved on what they think about the Governor and the Legislature: 56 percent still think Governor Tim Pawlenty is doing a good job; and, 40 percent still approve of the Legislature. At first blush, those numbers seemed surprising, but not upon reflection. Both the Governor and the Legislature haven't done much of anything to date to change those numbers.

Coming Soon: Environmentalists for Pawlenty?

Republicans are fond of viewing tough budget times as "opportunities" to reform existing "spending systems." One of the most interesting reforms proposed by Governor Tim Pawlenty this year is a total revamp of the Legislative Commission on Minnesota Resources (LCMR). This is the body that decides how to spend the constitutionally-dedicated-to-the-environment state lottery proceeds. Comprised of 10 Senators and 10 Representatives appointed by legislative leadership, LCMR doesn't exactly allocate chump change: Lottery proceeds to be spent this year are projected to be more than $35 million and are expected to hit about $70 million in the next ten years.

Competition for these funds is just as intense as bonding bill lobbying. One of your publishers remembers spending steamy summer days in the early 1990s in the bowels of the State Office Building watching one interest group after another beg for funding before the LCMR. Perhaps most fascinating, then and now, are the kinds of projects the LCMR funds. On this year's list, for example, are: $800,000 for a wind to hydrogen demonstration project; $250,000 to identify climate change impact on the state's aquatic system; and $336,000 for dairy digesters (for you city kids, that's collecting the methane given off by fermenting cow manure and using it to generate electricity).

Never mind the left-leaning politics behind those sponsoring these projects, or that many of these projects do have great merit. [Some Republicans, like Democrats, also lay awake at night pondering the enormity of fun facts like the six million tons of methane that North American cows burp annually are equivalent to 36 billion tons of carbon dioxide.] The Governor's point is that doling out the dough this way, piecemeal to pet projects, doesn't further statewide, long-term strategic conservation activities. And some of the state's strongest environmental groups, like the Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy, the Nature Conservancy, Ducks Unlimited, and Pheasants Forever, wholeheartedly support the Governor on reforming LCMR. As do the Star Tribune's Dennis Anderson and its editorial board.

Rather than have legislators decide how to spend the money, the idea is to have an 11-member citizen-based group of outdoor experts that would guide the state's conservation investments, as is done in other states. And, perhaps the new group would be willing to look at much larger projects, like the proposed Clean Water Legacy Act, supported by farmers, enviros, businesspeople and hunters, that has stalled out to date on the question of its $80 million annual price tag.

The House took the Governor's proposal up last week, and after much debate, it stayed in the omnibus ag and environment finance bill. Legislators from both parties rose in opposition--the Republicans and Democrats who serve or who have served on the LCMR. There is no comparable provision in the Senate's omnibus bill, setting the stage for a showdown in the conference committee. Early predictions are that the power of the supporting environmental groups may change some Senate DFL minds.

DFL Convention Showdown in the City of the Lakes

Four years ago, R.T. Rybak was the outsider running for Mayor against Sharon Sayles Belton, a seemingly popular two-term incumbent, in a crowded race that included then-City Council member Lisa McDonald and Hennepin County Commissioner Mark Stenglein.

Today, he is the incumbent, but he still seems to have "outsider" status, trying to buck the establishment when he supposedly is the establishment. We suppose that's because there aren't many things to which Rybak can point, and say, "I did that." Granted, in times of deficits, it's hard to do much but balance budgets. But, there's also such simplicity in the fact that he violated the major pledges he made four years ago. They are that (1) he would not support public funding of a baseball stadium (which he now does, after stumbling on the issue for several news cycles); (2) he would get the streets plowed in 24 hours (which he did not); and, (3) he would not hold fund-raisers in non-election years or take campaign contributions from people who have business with the City (which he did).

And, four years ago, Rybak successfully blocked Sayles Belton from receiving the endorsement. Now, he's arguing for endorsement, given Hennepin County Commissioner Peter McLaughlin's pledge to drop out if Rybak gets the endorsement. This issue alone could be the issue on which McLaughlin wins the endorsement tomorrow. Compounding Rybak's problems are that while he is a proud champion of progressive causes, he hasn't done much in terms of DFL-party building while serving as Mayor.

While McLaughlin's candidacy seemed to falter the last few months, McLaughlin and his supporters now seem to be hitting their stride. McLaughlin can point to accomplishments like a viable baseball stadium proposal, the new LRT line and the major revamp of Lake Street. His AFSCME and Firefighter union endorsements are not insignificant things among DFL delegates. On the other hand, some Democrats with whom we spoke think McLaughlin didn't start organizing for the convention early enough. Mayor Rybak's challenge to Sayles Belton, his support of Ralph Nader in the 2000 presidential election, and his lack of building a party infrastructure in the past four years all mean that McLaughlin should be positioned to keep the endorsement from the Mayor, or outright win it.

The factors affecting Saturday's convention are many. On factor will be the weather: bad weather could mean better turn out, or possibly worse turn out. Most spring conventions suffer when the weather is nice, but the opposite could happen here for people without anything else to do Saturday. However, if it is too cold and rainy, people may not come out.

Rybak's team included many from his victorious team in 2001: Peter Wagenius, Laura Sether, and his campaign manager Bill Hyers. His supporters include all but two members of the Minneapolis legislative delegation, most of the sitting City Council members, including: Don Samuels, Scott Benson, Lisa Goodman, Gary Schiff, and DFL fund-raisers Sam and Sylvia Kaplan.

The McLaughlin team is lesser known, but he does have significant political operatives, including former Minneapolis City Council Member Jim Niland, DFL numbers guru Ed Gross, and his current county aide Brian Schkelton, running his floor operation for tomorrow's convention. McLaughlin's other supporters include: DFL Minneapolis Sens. Linda Higgins and Wes Skoglund; Don and Arvonne Fraser; Sharon Spartz; Ken Kelash; Jim Graham; VJ Smith; Nothando Zulu; and Larry Ward.

How much is being spent for the GOP and no new taxes?

The constant campaign continues with the ads from the Taxpayers League, the state Republican Party, and the Minnesota Realtors, all touting the need to keep a lid on taxes, and the first two taking direct shots at the DFL Senate, Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson (DFL-Willmar) and some other specific Senators.

While it is smart politics, we wonder whether anyone is paying attention to the ads, since the DFL isn't on the air. It isn't likely that with the heavy lobbying of interest groups throughout the session that these ads are going to prompt anyone to change their minds. And the previous numbers from the Star Tribune regarding a balance of taxes, fees and budget cuts being the choice of the plurality of Minnesotans tells us that, in the end, these ads won't matter.

By DFL accounts, the Realtors have spent $300,000, and the state GOP and Taxpayers League combined, at least $500,000. This doesn't take into account the "Special Fund" direct mail campaign by the National Association of Office and Industrial Parks (NAOIP) which has gone to small business owners across Minnesota.

DFL Chair Race

There is a major race going on among former State Representative Betty Folliard, Minneapolis DFL Chair Brian Melendez and former Wellstone staffer Josh Syrgimaki, to replace outgoing DFL State Party Chair Mike Erlandson.

While this is the ultimate game of inside baseball, one interesting note is that all the campaigns have Web sites: www.bettyfolliard.com, www.brianmelendez.com, and www.joshforchair.com.

Two MN Expats on Their New Lives and Their Current Political Climates

Looks like some of our readers are doing as we asked and forwarding our reports on to former Minnesotans now living elsewhere. Among our e-mails were two delightful ones from people well-remembered in Minnesota public affairs.

Checking in from Montana: Long-time Minnesota Trucking Association lobbyist Lisa Peterson now lives in the shadow of the state capitol in Helena, and offers that, "officially, I'm a bureaucrat." She's a public information officer for the Montana Department of Environmental Quality, and she "still loves it here and doesn't miss the Minnesota traffic or the winters." Peterson, verbatim on politics in Montana:

"Politics here is fun to watch in its own way. We went purple during the last election and got ourselves a Democratic Governor as well as turned our state Senate Democratic and split the House 50-50 after years of Republican rule. The Gov's a real character--wears jeans and brings his cattle dog to work every day--but is smart and politically savvy. Since the House is tied, they had to create a way to split up committees and to pry bills out of tied ones. So, using a fine western metaphor they created the 'silver bullets.' Each party had 10 that could be used to 'blast' a bill out of a deadlocked committee to the full body without a vote. Wouldn't that be handy to have sometimes?" Peterson also sent us a great read on Governor Brian Schweitzer's growing national profile.

And from California: John Clawson represented the Lindstrom area as a DFLer from 1975-84. In 2000, he moved to the LA area where he lives in Santa Ana and is president of Lutheran Social Services of Southern California. The perfect job for Clawson, given his biography. John proffers his thoughts about the Governor of California.

"Arnold is not at all like Jesse Ventura. Both thought their celebrity and 'boyish good looks' would make them heroes, politically. Neither one has/had the foggiest idea of what politics is. Both thought/think that bullying and declaration of fiat and intimidation would make them effective as governors. Arnold's stock falls each day. His 'close the border' comment (he knows perfectly well how to handle the English language, and both his 'I'm just an ignorant immigrant' response and his flannel-mouthed backtracking on the comment lost him friends on both sides of the issue) and his praise for Arizona vigilantes have shown him in a shocking (for many people) new light."

On politics in California, in general, Clawson says, "There is a distressing lack of concern here for office-holding as public service...viz the trouble LA Mayor James Hahn and his opponent Antonio Villaraigosa and the entire city of San Diego municipal government. All this is replicated daily the length and breadth of California.

Politics In Minnesota: Bits & Pieces...
--Tracking people and events--