Politics in Minnesota: The Weekly Report - Vol. 1, Issue 12 - 7/22/2005

In this issue: It's Official: Pawlenty Moves to the Middle, The Rotenberg Poll--A Serious Look at the DFL race, The Ford Bell Factor, Special Session Fallout: A (Dramatic) Update, Al Franken Watch, Vulnerable Democrats Nailed with Anonymous Mailings, Bits & Pieces..., Lobbyist Watch, The Coming Week In Other Media

It's Official: Pawlenty Moves to the Middle

At his core, your publishers have always thought Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty is a moderate. And his most recent moves appear to make the statement that he is going back to his moderate roots. The over-played card of his term has been the "No New Taxes" Pledge, something that has cost him the staunch support of the always effective Taxpayers League.

In hindsight, his first move to moderate came by triangulating the prescription drug importation issue, against the wishes of Washington and the Bush Administration and trying to take the issue away from the Democrats. Meanwhile, this past session Democrats stuck the pledge to Pawlenty, and many conservative social groups wanted a constitutional amendment / referendum question on gay marriage. The put-gay-marriage-on-the-ballot tactic was a key factor in conservatives turning out in swing states this past presidential year.

Well, this week Pawlenty decided to take away two major issues that conservatives want the most, and that Pawlenty could do something about: another tax pledge and gay marriage as a referendum issue.

Our note last week, about the possible departure of Pawlenty's chief of staff Dan McElroy, was based on the grumblings of prominent conservative legislators. But if Pawlenty is moderating, McElroy could be safe, even though he got blamed for the gambling and tax proposals that strayed from Pawlenty's and his party's core issues. The most notable moderation by the Governor this week was his Q & A with the Star Tribune editorial board. It appears he's back where he's most comfortable--in the middle.

The Rotenberg Poll--A Serious Look at the DFL race

Although we're still sixteen months away from Election Day, a fund-raiser at the home of former state Republican chair and TCF CEO Bill Cooper by Vice President Dic k Cheney on behalf of U.S. Sen. hopeful, U.S. Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, reminds us that this race will be a big deal nationally.

But on the Democratic side, most of the battle is local. We were fortunate to be given some insight into a statewide poll done by Penn and Schoen for U of M General Counsel Mark Rotenberg in late March. Penn and Schoen is the Democratic firm that former President Bill Clinton used to rebuild after the 1994 Republican Revolution.

Rotenberg, who withdrew from the race for the Democratic U.S. Sen. contest, would have been a significant and thoughtful candidate. The poll he commissioned was full of interesting stuff. Most notable was that for people in their mid-20s, education was by far the most important issue, even in a federal race where the war with Iraq and jobs have led among Democrats in other parts of the country.

As we expected, child advocate Patty Wetterling, and Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar have very high name recognition across the state. The most significant revelation in the Rotenberg poll is that Klobuchar leads solidly among primary voters in their mid-20s, and after further poll-refining queries, her support among primary voters doesn't budge.

Wetterling, however, had support at 18 percent, but as the profiles were tested further her support was clearly weaker than that of Klobuchar. Certainly Rotenberg's polling numbers made it clear to him that his campaign would have been tough and expensive, given the Klobuchar and Wetterling polling numbers.

Rotenberg's disadvantage was that he couldn't self-finance like real estate developer Kelly Doran, but Rotenberg did learn that it will likely cost anyone challenging Klobuchar or Wetterling $5 million in the primary. And that is a rough race, with an unchallenged Kennedy waiting on the other side with a full bank account.

Ultimately, we think Rotenberg would have made the race very interesting, and a major challenge, especially considering that he would have been able to make major inroads as THE education candidate - the number one issue in the poll.

The Ford Bell Factor

Ford Bell, another rich guy, entered the Democratic U.S. Sen. contest today. As of today, we think his influence on the race is minimal, but we have heard he is very good on the stump and is raising more funds than people thought he could. As the great-grandson of one of the founders of General Mills, C. Ford Bell is part of an old blue blood family. Bell may be one of the last of an aging and less active group of successful families, like the Daytons and the Pillsburys, which once richly contributed to Minnesota's civic life.

Bell has a great resume. He is the current president of the Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, and a veterinarian by training. The vet stuff can play well outstate to farmers, the foundation stuff means he is comfortable raising funds--something that every candidate must do. Those two facts make him almost viable.

Bell's biggest challenge is, of course, that no one knows him. And as our previous Sen. story noted, he needs a few more million to challenge in a primary. Minnesotans have been known to elect the non-politician statewide; we just don't think 2006 is the year. But we do know that he's got good help in campaign manager Mark Oyaas.

Special Session Fallout: A (Dramatic) Update

Last week we wrote about the seemingly universal disgust with Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty and the Legislature over the budget stalemate and partial government shutdown. We thought legislative incumbents might be in trouble in the 2006 election. We changed our minds, after this week's anecdotal reports from legislators who marched in parades after the Legislature adjourned. Sure, there is still the disgust--but it is not aimed at local legislators. Rather, to the public, it's all those other SOBs and Bs who caused the problems, not their hometown legislator. This, of course, is the same phenomenon that members of Congress have used for years. The Congress may be a disaster, but our guy or gal is one of the good ones.

Our favorite parade report comes from Rep. Denny McNamara (R-Hastings). He got a call from the Hastings Chamber of Commerce. The group had received a call that at least 40 people were planning to crash the Hastings parade and throw tomatoes. The chamber notified the police. What happened? Not a single tomato--or any heckling from anyone at all. It's still possible that incumbents are in trouble, but anecdotes like this remind us of the value of incumbency in local campaigns

Al Franken Watch
--Tracking the other New Yorker who wants to be a U.S. Senator from Minnesota--

Bernard Goldberg, the former CBS reporter who wrote Bias, has a new book titled, 100 People Who Are Screwing Up America...And Al Franken is #37. The chapter on Franken includes a mock dialogue between Goldberg and Franken. The most interesting part of the "conversation:"

Goldberg: ...By the way, do you know why you're number 37 on the list of people who are screwing up America?

Franken: No, actually, I don't.

Goldberg: Well, you know who Casey Stengel was?

Franken: Sure, that baseball man, right?

Goldberg: Right, Al, that baseball man. He was the manager of the New York Yankees. Well, Casey walked into spring training camp one year and told all of his players to line up in alphabetical order...according to height. He wasn't trying to be funny. Casey spoke gibberish...gobbledygook...total nonsense. Just like you, Al. And Casey's uniform number was...37! That's why I gave you that number.

As one would expect, the list of 100 includes mostly liberals. And the number one person who is screwing up America, is, of course, film maker Michael Moore. Goldberg doesn't even write about Moore. Rather, Goldberg simply runs a full-page photo of Moore, along with a caption, which reads:

"They are possibly the dumbest people on the planet..."
Michael Moore, Speaking of his fellow Americans

Vulnerable Democrats Nailed with Anonymous Mailings

Households in Democratic House districts are receiving mailings that carry the curious disclaimer, "Mailed in compliance with M.S. 211B.04(f)." For those of us who don't make it a point to routinely memorize and cite Minnesota Statutes, the law basically allows an individual or organization to print and distribute up to $500 worth of literature without naming who is paying for it. The law was designed to allow individual citizens to express their concerns by printing cheap flyers complaining about elected officials. Unclear under the law as written is whether these mailings can be done and paid for by many different individuals and thus make use of the full disclosure loophole. What we know: The mailings are showing up in what could be considered vulnerable Democratic districts, and particularly in those districts represented by Democratic frosh. Readers: Got any further intelligence? E-mail us at staff@politicsinminnesota.com.

Politics In Minnesota: Bits & Pieces...
--Tracking people and events--

Our lips are sealed, so start your speculation engines: A certain well-known and well-respected Minnesotan will soon be named a U.S. Ambassador by President George W. Bush. At least three Minnesotans have served as ambassadors. Democrat Geri Joseph was appointed ambassador to the Netherlands by President Jimmy Carter; Republican Evie Teegan, as ambassador to the Fiji Islands by President George H.W. Bush; and Democrat James Hormel (yes, part of the family of the Austin Hormels), as ambassador to Luxembourg by President Bill Clinton. Readers, are we missing any former Minnesota ambassadors? E-mail us at staff@politicsinminnesota.com.

For our readers who visited the link to Geri Joseph, we mean no disrespect by linking her to a "political graveyard" site. But it's the only Web site we could find that highlights her career. She's alive and well and still doing a ton of stuff at the HHH Institute.

The trial in the lawsuit alleging board of directors' self-dealing filed by Democratic Attorney Mike Hatch against Medica should start next week. At the top of the list of Medica's "hostile witnesses" is Hatch, himself. Prevail or not, the case is great politics for Hatch--he'll come across as the guy willing to take on the big HMOs.

Given he's taken a pounding over the lengthy budget showdown and government shutdown, no one was more delighted than Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty in the news that Minnesota finally has more jobs than it did in March 2001, when the economy peaked just before the recession. Job figures released this week show that our state had a record 2.72 million jobs during June as opposed to 2.72 million in March 2001. The new stats put Minnesota on track for the best annual job growth showing since 1999.

There's a lot at stake for the city of Minneapolis and the Minneapolis delegation if the downtown Rapid Park site doesn't get passed in a special session. The Twins will forfeit a Metrodome-only exemption from an entertainment tax that the Timberwolves and Target Center pays. It would mean at least an extra $2 million for the city in revenue, or $60 million over the 30 year lease. People very close to the ballpark say that this will be the last chance for Minneapolis and a ballpark.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Jim Oberstar has endorsed DFL Hennepin County Commissioner Peter McLaughlin for mayor of Minneapolis. The two have a long and rich history of working together on major transportation projects like light rail. Oberstar, by the way, is extremely busy serving on both the energy and transportation conference committees. Nice touch in Oberstar's office: His chief of staff, Bill Richard, leaves a new and upbeat message on his voice mail tracking the daily events of Oberstar and the Congress. We should note that Oberstar is supporting incumbent Mayor Randy Kelly in St. Paul, someone else with whom he has worked for a number of years. Loyalty still does exist.

Media watchers may find it interesting that long-time KSTP sports guy Joe Schmit isn't co-anchoring with Cindy Brucato on most nights, despite the fact he was named her co-anchor.

Minnesotan and Republican fund-raiser Jerry Seppalla got some very impressive coverage in The Hill newspaper in Washington this week for his work for U.S. Representative Eric Cantor (R-Virginia), the only Jewish Republican in the House, and deputy minority whip who uses Seppalla's talents and Jewish community fund-raising strategies that he learned raising bucks for former Republican U.S. Senator Rudy Boschwitz.

When people wonder where all of Patty Wetterling's funds goes, the 75-year-old mother of one of your publishers has received three or four calls from operators pleading for greenbacks. Those calls are most likely coming from Meyers and Associates, the St. Cloud-based telephone company run by former DFL executive director Jerry Samargia. Of the $750K Wetterling has raised, we're guessing that's where most of the $375K she has spent has gone.

Second District Congressional candidate Democrat Coleen Rowley was scheduled to appear on CNN Thursday night during Minnesota native Aaron Brown's show, in a piece about the 9/11 Commission report by reporter Joe Johns. The show has been rescheduled to run on Friday, July 22, 2005.

WCCO reporter Pat Kessler had an excellent "Reality Check" segment this week regarding the small pet projects that were passed in the final budget deal. Most notable was $175K for wine research in the northwest corner of the state, and $350K for a fishing program for seniors--a pet project of Sen. Majority Leader Dean Johnson's (D-Willmar).

Notable Harvard Law classmates of U.S. Supreme Court nominee John Roberts include two Minnesota political movers and shakers, George Soule of Bowman and Brooke and David Lillehaug of Fredrickson & Byron. Soule is married to current candidate for Minneapolis City Council, Lisa McDonald, and served as chair of the Minnesota Commission on Judicial Selection during both Governor Arne Carlson's and Governor Jesse Ventura's administrations. Lillehaug was U.S Attorney from 1994 to 1998, and an unsuccessful candidate for Attorney General in 1998 and U.S. Senator in 2000. Most recently, he successfully led the legal challenge to the conceal and carry legislation, only to have the Legislature re-pass the bill. [The lawsuit was premised on the first passage of the gun law, which was done in an omnibus / "garbage" bill which is prohibited by the Minnesota Constitution.]

In the Republican race for the Sixth Congressional District seat being vacated by Mark Kennedy, Rep. Phil Krinkie (R-Lino Lakes) led all candidates in fund raising by raising $72,000 in the second quarter. That's impressive considering Krinkie was busy in the special the legislative session. Also, last week, we had a note about Krinkie's conundrum over the tax bill vote. We should have been more balanced and mentioned that Rep. Jim Knoblach (R-St. Cloud) and Sen. Michele Bachmann (R-Stillwater) had the same conundrum, and chose to vote for the "Fee (Tax) Increase" and against the Unborn Child Pain Prevention Act, a major Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life initiative.

Guest speakers at the next HHH Institute policy forum are Sen. Geoff Michel (R-Edina) and Rep. Joe Atkins (D-Inver Grove Heights), founding members of the "Bipartisan 2020 Caucus." The group was formed this year by eight sophomore legislators, and is so-named because in 2020, the number of retirees is forecast to exceed the number of schoolchildren in Minnesota. Nate Garvis, vice president of Target Corporation (which is sponsoring the event) and former Democratic Congressman and Independence Party (IP) gubernatorial candidate Tim Penny will moderate the breakfast seminar to be held at the Nicollet Island Inn on August 4. Those interested in attending should contact Ellen Tveit (etveit@hhh.umn.edu) for a space reservation.

Speaking of the IP, both Democrats and Republicans are grumbling over the likelihood of government consultant Peter Hutchinson entering the governor's race in 2006. Democrats maintain that had Tim Penny not been in the race in 2002, Democrat Roger Moe would have beat Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty. [The 2002 results: Pawlenty, 44.4%; Moe, 36.5%; and Penny, 18.2%.] Republicans think their man wins in a straight Republican-DFL contest, despite the Governor's recent downturn in the polls.

Given all the interesting votes by legislators against their party positions in the last few months, don't forget to take advantage of all the good work done by the Center of the American Experiment's Chris Tiedeman in compiling easily accessible vote lists.

House Speaker Steve Sviggum (R-Kenyon) has appointed two members to run the House Republican Caucus candidate recruitment effort. The members are second-term Reps. Brad Finstad (R-New Ulm) and Joe Hoppe (R-Chaska). First stop is St. Cloud, to cull out a candidate who can replace Rep. Joe Opatz (D-St. Cloud), who is retiring to become interim president of Central Lakes College, in this mostly Democratic, but perhaps trending Republican urban/suburban, St. Cloud district. Given the slim 68-66 House Republican majority, look for outside groups to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to influence the outcome of this race.

Today's announcement by Sen. Bob Kierlin (R-Winona) was a surprise and a big loss for the Sen. Republican Caucus and the entire Legislature. Like Opatz, Kierlin is considered a thoughtful mainstreamer in a swing district. But Kierlin has the added distinction of being the only legislator who is a CEO of a publicly traded company. In 1967, Kierlin founded Fastenal, which sells and distributes industrial nuts and bolts. Today, the company has more than 7,500 employees and 1,500 stores. Your publishers hope Kierlin's retirement galvanizes the discussion on the question of what sane businessperson wants to serve in the current legislative environment? Certain to look at the Sen. seat are the current House members in District 31, Reps. Greg Davids (R-Preston) and Gene Pelowski (D-Winona).

Finally, sometimes the retirements of legislative staffers are significant losses to the process, as well. One such staffer who will be sorely missed is Patti Nauman, who for years, has been the go-to girl for anything Sen. Larry Pogemiller (D-Minneapolis) was working on. Congratulations to Patti on her fine service and best of luck at your government affairs job at the Association of Metropolitan Municipalities.

During the past three months people have used Minnesota government shutdown-related queries in the search engines 28 times. "Impeach Pawlenty" has been used as a search phrase seven times, and "tim pawlenty karl rove" has been used as a search phrase twice. All told, people have searched for information on Governor Pawlenty 112 times during the past three months.

Politics In Minnesota: Lobbyist Watch
--Who is working what issues--

From the Minnesota Campaign Finance & Public Disclosure Board

• Newly registered lobbyists:
  • John Diehl, for Gillette Children's Hospital.
  • Louis DeMars, for the Minneapolis Hospitality Association.
  • Doug Johnson, for Franconia Minerals Corporation.
• Recently terminated lobbyists:
  • Dean Barkely, for Lorillard Tobacco Company.
  • Peder Larson, for the Partnership for Mercury Free Vehicles.

Politics In Minnesota: The Coming Week In Other Media

[Publishers Note: Please e-mail staff@politicsinminnesota.com to tell us about other media we are missing.]

Access to Democracy: Hosted by Alan Miller and produced by BECT TV (Burnsville/Eagan Community Television; Channel 15 in those areas).

Almanac. Hosted by Erik Eskola and Cathy Wurzer. Find out what's on this week's show. Airs live at 7:00 p.m. Fridays on TPT Channel 2. Rebroadcasts are Saturday mornings at 1:00 a.m. and Sunday mornings at 9:30 a.m. on Channel 2. You can also watch the current and past shows.

Almanac Highlights - July 22, 2005:

• This week's monolog is delivered by Pioneer Press reporter Jim Ragsdale.
• U. S. Supreme Court - Two constitutional law professors will stop by to talk about Supreme Court nominee Judge John Roberts.
• Capitol Photos - We asked viewers to send us their photos from the State Capitol. Tune in and hear the stories behind the pictures we received.
• New Party Chairs - Meet Brian Melendez, new DFL Party chair, and Ron Carey, new Republican Party chair.
• Alice the Great Horned Owl - Meet the owl who lobbied for state protection and won.
• Northwest Airlines - A panel of experts joins us to talk about labor and management issues at Northwest Airlines.

At Issue with Tom Hauser. Broadcast on Sundays at 7:00 a.m. on KSTP Channel 45 and at 9:00 a.m. on KSTP Channel 5. Coming this week:

• A recap of the week's political news.
• Univer sity of St. Thomas law professor David Schiltz, who is/was a friend and Harvard law classmate of John Roberts, President Bush's nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court.
• The first of a series of individual interviews with U.S. Sen. candidates. This week it's Kelly Doran.
• Political analysis with former Democratic Governor Wendy Anderson and the Center of the American Experiment's Annette Meeks.
• Face-Off with Democrat Ember Reichgott Junge and Republican and the Taxpayers League's David Strom.

WCCO Radio: The Pat Miles Show. 830 AM. Every Thursday morning about 9:30 a.m., politicsinminnesota.com publishers Blois Olson and Sarah Janecek visit with Pat to discuss the week's hottest political news.