Politics in Minnesota: The Weekly Report - Vol. 3, Issue 31 - 2/8/2008

In this issue: Minnesota Caucus Recap; PIM Predictions Right And Wrong; No Impact On Pawlenty; Make The Primary, Primary; The Caucus Chaos Of 2008 Spawns Primary Proposals; Superdelegate Dilemma; How About Dem Polls? (And GOPolls?); FOX On The Run; Session Starts; Party Faithful vs. Party Endorsed; Bits & Pieces; Lobbyist Watch; Setting The Record Straight.
PIM Predictions Right And Wrong

Last week, we correctly called the blow-out for Barack Obama, but we blew what happened on the GOP side. We wrongly concluded that John McCain's then-seeming -- now actual -- inevitability would coerce Republicans into voting for the winner. What actually happened reflects the continuing schism of the Reagan Coalition and the power of organization. Party stalwarts like Vin Weber and Brian Sullivan delivered the troops for Romney. GOP Chair Ron Carey delivered a decent showing for his man, Mike Huckabee. [See more on Carey next story.] Ron Paul earned a strong fourth place, and we bet many of his supporters were caucus newbies.

No Impact On Pawlenty

Both right wing bloggers and MinnPost's Gerry Anderson are dead wrong. GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty is not the biggest loser in this week's Minnesota caucuses. When John McCain picks his vice presidential candidate, caucus results won't be part of the conversation. Pawlenty didn't invest much, if any, of his political capital in GOP circles to turn out for McCain because of that fact. Now that the GOP has picked McCain, the only salient factor is the Electoral College.

The Electoral College calculation is - what potential vice presidential candidate shows promise in helping deliver the 270 or more votes needed to win the presidency? For Pawlenty, that calculation could shake out in his favor in two not necessarily mutually exclusive ways. First, in 2004, Karl Rove and the rest of the George Bush team viewed the Electoral College votes as a block, "Minnewissowa" [Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10) and Iowa (7).] Minnewissowa didn't actually work that well in 2004, with John Kerry prevailing in both Minnesota and Wisconsin, and Bush winning Iowa, so perhaps the McCain team won't work the Midwest trifecta state angle by choosing a popular Midwest governor like Pawlenty.

If there's no clear vice presidential candidate who can be expected to deliver Electoral College votes that McCain can't deliver on his own, then the choice becomes who has the broadest appeal to voters. And who can add depth and breadth to the ticket. Here's where Pawlenty shines: Youth (in contrast to McCain), smart and articulate, solid conservative record, with some cuts to the middle (Pawlenty on climate change) and no personal baggage.

Working against Pawlenty is that it's tough to imagine a scenario where both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee don't heavily lobby the McCainiacs to be the vice presidential candidate. Romney getting out early after this week's results bodes particularly well for Romney.

Finally, state DFLers' obsession with bashing Pawlenty as a vice presidential contender strikes us as bizarre, if not childish. Witness this snarky, mean-spirited memo [PDF] from the "Minnesota DFL Party" to "Media, Interested Parties."

Make The Primary, Primary

What a wonderfully strange result: The first wildly successful Minnesota caucus in decades hammer home the need for a presidential primary, instead. In "Overloaded and Outdated," Star Tribune political columnist Lori Sturdevant documents the moments that add up to an indictment of the caucus system. Institutionally, the Star Tribune fleshes out the need for a primary, here (no doubt this was also written by Sturdevant), as does the Hutchinson Leader here, and the Minnesota Daily, here.

For the record, your publisher has supported a primary system from the moment she left her first precinct caucus in the 1980s. Caucuses drive both major political parties to ideological extremes, they are inconvenient and thus a barrier to participation, and they require all participants to disclose their politics to their neighbors. Fortunately, instituting a primary system is picking up serious steam (see next story).

Making the change at the Legislature has always been difficult because 99 percent of the legislators deciding the issue were endorsed by people who rose through the caucus system and want to keep it. That's true of state party leadership as well, which makes what DFL State Party Chair Brian Melendez said in a memo to other DFL party unit chairs all the more significant. Melendez wrote, "Switching to a presidential primary -- while keeping the caucuses for other races and for party governance -- is worth talking about. Gold star for Melendez.

Not so for GOP State Party Chair Ron Carey. "GOP chairman Ron Carey said he and other party leaders adamantly oppose 'any change from our caucus system.'" And, "Logistical headaches can be dealt with...You don't have to throw out a process that's worked well." Given what happened on Tuesday, that latter statement is factually refuted. Despite claiming to speak for "other party leaders," we're not so sure Carey does that anymore. Many GOP party players found Carey's endorsement of Mike Huckabee to be appalling. As state party chair, he should have sat on the sidelines. Many more party leaders and activists supported Mitt Romney than Huckabee. Then there are other rumblings, about losing the Northfield state Senate seat that now-judge but former GOP Senator Tom Neuville held since 1982, and that the state GOP is broke and too poorly organized to help House Republican Caucus candidates this fall.

Bottom line? Carey has set himself up to have his opinion on a primary seriously discounted. Let's enact one this coming session.

The Caucus Chaos Of 2008 Spawns Primary Proposals

Both major political parties got infusions of energy on Super Tuesday, as an unprecedented wave of Minnesotans shattered all records by attempting to vote. As of this afternoon, the Secretary of State reported 212,744 Minnesotans voted with the DFL (with 89.84% precincts reporting), 62,857 GOPers (99.61% reporting), and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R TX-14) handily won the support of the Constitution Party of Minnesota with 65 votes, or 79% of the vote (7 of 8 districts reporting). The Independence Party online virtual caucus continues until March 4th. While Minnesota was spared the freakish weather which hit the southern U.S., the 2008 caucus chaos of Super Tuesday left many Minnesotans unable to cast ballots (including DFL Party Chair Brian Melendez).

Meanwhile legislators are getting an earful this week from their constituents who experienced every kind of problem at their caucuses. In places like Edina, cars stacked up for miles, unable to enter parking lots. In many places, people could not be routed to correct precincts. A woman with a baby bailed out of a cold line on Nicollet Avenue in front of this PIM writer. While Tuesday's freshly minted delegates will apparently decide the DFL Senate endorsement, the jumbled experience left little time for anyone to discuss the Senate race. It was unclear how the delegate selection process was supposed to relate with Senate preferences: was it O.K. to quiz candidates about their Senate leanings? Answer: sometimes! Also, it seems that, at least in Minneapolis, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer supporters got a pretty good foothold despite his lack of fundraising gravitas.

Congratulations to Secretary of State Mark Ritchie (DFL) on the wildly successful web project: the SOS office was pleased that their Caucus Finder web application became very popular, and operated smoothly during caucus day. Since its launch, the site got 180,274 hits, and 90,601 hits on Tuesday.

Primary Proposals

Early last year, DFL legislators offered bills to reform the Minnesota election process and create a binding all-day primary election. The current big election bills are:

• (SF 1527 / HF 1776) establishes a presidential primary, which is currently at Senate Finance;
• (SF 1366 / HF 1480) which tweaks special elections, forbidding them between December 24th and January 2nd, passed the Senate and currently waits in House Gov Ops for action;
• SF 2045, which alters primary ballots, party designation rules and defines permitted words for advertisements.
  

However, senators Ann Rest (DFL-New Hope) and Linda Scheid (DFL-Brooklyn Park) are currently working on a new bill to create a binding presidential primary, which is based on a 1989 proposal by then-House members Scheid and Tom Osthoff (DFL-St. Paul). (We found a copy of the 1989 bill on the Legislative Reference Library microfiche, it's HF 2325 if you're curious.)

Next Wednesday at 6 p.m. in Capitol Room 15, the second day of the session, Sen. Rest will chair a Gov Ops hearing where two election reform bills will be read, and testimonials from aggrieved citizens will be collected for the record. As one DFL senator involved with the proposals told PIM, it's a great problem to have. No one was interested in this when it was introduced a year ago, but because of what happened this week, now it's a big deal. Creating another expensive mandate for local government was one reason it got no traction last year. Roughly speaking, the hope with these new proposals would be that the primary would be held at the same polling locations as the general election, run by the same people, not partisan volunteers - and this would introduce proper security and reliability to the process, while ensuring people can vote all day long instead of a sudden 7 p.m. traffic jam. Party caucuses would be held as separate events.

Superdelegate Dilemma

Democrats nationwide are pondering the Obama/Clinton superdelegate problem: should superdelegates cast votes at odds with the DFLers who elected them? While a broad slice of the elected DFL establishment (many of whom are voting superdelegates) endorsed U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, many, if not most, of their districts went for U.S. Sen. Barack Obama often by huge margins. U.S. Rep. Tim Walz (D-MN 1) endorsed Obama after Super Tuesday, declaring that his responsibility at the convention was to reflect the overwhelming wishes of his districts' primary voters. MSNBC anchor Dan Abrams floated the idea on his show that superdelegates should promise to uphold their districts' expressed wishes. Otherwise, the Democratic National Convention in Denver will gridlock, and that all the superdelegates may develop 'mutant powers,' as Stephen Colbert and veteran Dem strategist Tad Devine agreed on the Colbert Report this week [Flash video]. For the DFL PIM contingent, it seems the public loses and the insiders win. If a DFL superdelegate wants to defect to Obama, will that superdelegate try to extract a price for the flip? If the Minnesota delegation votes for Obama by less than 66%, is it really an exercise in democracy?

How About Dem Polls? (And GOPolls?)

We hate to slam anyone who spends time and money polling our state. However, we thought pre-caucus polling was ridiculous (one would have to ask dozens of questions to weed out people unlikely to caucus). What happened Tuesday makes our case.



FOX On The Run

For our readers who watched Tuesday night's action on KARE 11, KSTP, or WCCO, and not FOX 9 News, not only did you miss Brian Lambert & Sarah Janecek mildly square off as DFL and GOP commentators, but you also missed the biggest media story of the year so far. FOX 9 devoted two hours of air time to local coverage of the story (and another hour on a webcast), had three different sets going devoted to certain segments, and assigned at least 30 people to work on their coverage. Plus they put a helicopter in the air solely for the purpose of catching the caucus traffic jams. That's an expensive night in the television biz, and exciting for political junkies who've witnessed other stations diminish their coverage of politics.

FOX 9 has many more extensive-coverage plans in the works, including a half hour in prime time (starting at 9:30 p.m tonight), devoted to summarizing the political week past and what's ahead. [Including a Lambert & Janecek, redux.]

Session Starts

Next Tuesday. Noon. We know that. The caucuses were such a big story, we ran out of space and time for a legislative session preview story. Sorry about that.

Party Faithful vs. Party Endorsed
by PIM's Pam Steinle

Professor Wy Spano (and former PIM editor) taught me that state legislators alone do not represent political party sentiment; that despite seeing Speaker Steve Sviggum at countless news conferences, he didn't speak for the Republican party, only the House Republican caucus. To a new politico, this seemed strange. I assumed Republicans in the legislature automatically got along with the leaders of the Republican Party of Minnesota. My experience as a House campaign field worker proved otherwise, and since then I have watched the conservative party faithful battle it out with the generally more moderate, party-endorsed elected officials.

This legislative season, one issue pending at the capitol is judicial elections. The nonprofit organization Minnesotans for Impartial Courts (MIC) launched its statewide lobbying campaign on February 1st. Led by former Gov. Al Quie, MIC is proposing a constitutional amendment that would eliminate judicial elections, replacing them with retention elections. According to MIC, establishing merit-based gubernatorial appointments, performance evaluations, and elections that decide whether an appointee stays or goes will prevent Minnesota from the expensive, negative-attack judicial campaigns that are becoming prevalent across the country.

Meet Bonn Clayton, 69, a retired financial consultant living in Chanhassen. Clayton has been active in politics since 1952, when he passed out campaign buttons for Ike & Dick in junior high (he interpreted for this generation X-er that Ike & Dick are Eisenhower and Nixon. I would have googled it if he hadn't explained). Clayton is the vice chair of the Republican's 2nd Congressional District, and serves as the convener of judicial district Republican chairs.

Clayton is heading up an effort to combat the MIC by proposing an amendment to the Republican Party of Minnesota's platform that will preserve judicial elections [click here to read the Word .DOC]. He says elections keep office holders accountable, and provide relief from activist judges who rule on their personal whim instead of the constitution. The proposal was shown to 300 state central committee members and emailed to "everybody we could think of." According to Clayton, several precinct caucuses have passed the amendment and he expects the proposal will easily pass through at least three congressional districts, with the end result being successful passage at the state convention. He said he personally has heard only positive comments about the proposal from fellow Republicans.

But Quie is a Republican. Former Gov. Arne Carlson is also listed as a supporter. They're Republicans...

"I'm not sure why they don't agree - even the Minnesota district court judges want to see the system preserved," Clayton said. "I can only guess... I think they should be supporting what most Republicans support. But they have their own views."

Yes, they do. Check back next week to read Quie's response and his own caucus resolution. Here's a teaser quote from Quie: "Political battles are fought for power, not for impartial justice. If we continue with contested elections, that will mean one group will try to win power over another group so that judges will make decisions to their liking. What we need is impartial judges to ensure justice for all people."

Bits & Pieces

Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) announced Thursday that bridge collapse relief limits, formerly $10,000 per claimant, are doubling. After initial claims were processed it became clear there was enough funding to raise the amount to $20,000 per claim, to assist in lost wages due to physical injury or death. Thirteen claims have been filed with the I-35W Emergency Hardship Relief Fund, with four receiving the previous maximum amount, to total more than $70,000.

Take a break for some timber trivia! Which one of the following is NOT a product derived from trees? A) Crayons B) Shaving Cream C) Football Helmets or D) Keyboards. The answer to this question, and many others you might have about the forest industry, can be found here at Minnesota Forest Industries' new website, minnesotaforests.com. Wayne Brandt, MFI's executive vice president, said the organization hopes people will use the website as their first stop when researching the forest products industry. Besides the predictable information section, the site also sells paper making kits (a fun project for the whole family during these cold winter days) and an illustrated guide to the trees of Minnesota. PIM's Pam Steinle is a big proponent of MFI, she and husband Justin Bartz spent time at the State Fair of 2001 handing out saplings... boxes and boxes of little trees that went faster than Martha's cookies.

Steve Sarvi, Iraq War Veteran and former Mayor of Watertown, officially announced his candidacy for Congress in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District. Sarvi will be vying for the Seat against three-time incumbent Rep. John Kline (R-MN 2).

DFL U.S. Senate Candidate Al Franken added to his ever-growing list of endorsements former U.S. Senate candidate Jim Cohen, former State Rep. Doug Peterson, Sen. Rod Skoe (D-Clearbrook) and Ramsey County Commissioner Rafael Ortega.

DFL activist and blogger Soren Sorensen threw his hat into the U.S. Senate race ring (sorenforsenate.blogspot.com), with the stated goal of making demands for party reform at the Rochester convention; it's difficult to argue with Soren's impeccable liberal credentials, as he's the proprietor of impeccableliberalcredentials.blogspot.com, and this PIM writer will vouch for his sincere interest in tightening up election practices and getting more people to caucus in northern Minnesota, based on what we heard from him at the 331 Club's Drinking Liberally weekly blogger booze conclave.

Who wouldn't want their very own personal geology trip? Well Dr. Carrie Jennings well be auctioning off her services as a glacial geologist to the highest bidder at CURE Silent Auction. The CURE Auction is this Saturday at the Hollywood Theater in beautiful downtown Montevideo from 5 to 10 p.m. To register call 1-877-269-2873 or click here.

Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) appointed four more judges to the Fourth Judicial Trial Court bench in Hennepin County. The openings come after the resignations of Heidi Schellhas and Francis Connolly and the retirements of Harry Seymour Crump and Allen Oleisky. The openings will be filled by Tamara Garcia, a local attorney since 1987, Fred Karasov, the senior attorney in the violent crimes division of the Hennepin County Attorney's Office, Anne McKeig, an assistant county attorney in Hennepin County Attorney's office in Minneapolis since 1992, and Laurie Miller, an attorney in the litigation department of the Fredrikson and Byron law firm. In addition applications are now being accepted for two upcoming vacancies for the Third Judicial District trial court bench. The vacancies come with the retirement of James Broberg effective April 29th and Margaret Johnson effective May 13th. To request an application Call John Hultquist at 651-296-0019 or email him at john.hultquist@state.mn.us. Applications must be received no later than 4:30 p.m. on March 5th.

Please note a time change for the Center of the American Experiment's discussion about civility in politics with Steve Sviggum and Roger Moe. Originally scheduled for noon to 1:30 p.m. on Wednesday, February 13th, it has been moved to 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. For directions and for more information click here.

On June 6-8 this year, the media activists of Free Press (who run the 'Net Neutrality' campaign and other initiatives) will host the National Conference for Media Reform at the Convention Center in downtown Minneapolis. The NCMR looks for lasting and real changes to our nation's media system. For information regarding the NCMR or to register click here. Good motto: "Media reform begins with ME."

Congratulations to Heidi Frederickson who was recently hired by Public Affairs Company (PAC). PAC is a nationally recognized firm which specializes in issue advocacy and grassroots communications. Frederickson will bring experience as a Senate campaigner and as Press Secretary for both the U.S. House and U.S. Senate to her new position.

Need a date idea for Valentine's Day? Well, you are in luck. This Valentine's Day over 600 arts advocates will gather at the State Capitol to ask legislators to pass the long awaited constitutional amendment that would bring funds to conservation and the arts. There will be a rally at 8:30 a.m. at the Minnesota History Center and then participants will meet with their legislators from 10:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. For more information about the rally or about MN Citizens for the Arts click here. [Publisher's note: Who would consider lobbying the Capitol a romantic Valentine's Day date?]

Minnesota Public Radio is holding an open-to-the public citizens forum next Monday, February 11th at 7 p.m. in their studio located at 480 Cedar Street in St. Paul. The topic of discussion will be Minnesota's transportation investment crisis. Kerri Miller will be hosting the forum which is free, but registration in required. To register click here.

Capella Education Company is seeking to fill the newly created position of Director of Government Relations. For more information about the position visit the Capella site.

The Minnesota Department of Health put out a report on "Health Insurance Coverage in Minnesota" this week. A Conservative blogger from the Wright County Republicans, after combing through the report, fired back here. The House DFLers are going to propose a universal health care program at a press conference at the State Office Building on Monday at 11:15 a.m. Only Sen. John Marty's (DFL-Roseville) name was on the press release.

The HHH Institute-sponsored presentation by Washington Post columnist E.J. Dionne, Jr. has been moved to 3 p.m. to 4:15 p.m. February 18th. It's free and open to the public. For directions click here.

Lobbyist Watch

From the Minnesota Campaign Finance & Public Disclosure Board:

• Recently Registered Lobbyists
• Recently Terminated Lobbyists

Setting The Record Straight

Correction: In PIM's Special Caucus Edition the name of Bruce Babbitt (D-AZ) slipped our mind as a presidential hopeful in 1988; thank you to an astute reader for pointing this out.