Politics in Minnesota: The Weekly Report - Vol. 4, Issue 3 - 7/11/2008
Jesse Won't Run
The big political news this week was Jesse Ventura teasing the national press that he might jump into the Minnesota Senate race.
Jesse may have shocked the world in 1998, but he won't shock a soul in 2008. We're betting Ventura won't run because (1) running is hard work; (2) serving is hard work; and most important, (3) he can't handle losing, which he surely will do (and which is the real reason he didn't run for a second gubernatorial term -- he would have lost).
Should Ventura shock us with a candidacy, MinnPost's Eric Black lays out the reasons DFL challenger Al Franken, not U.S. GOP Sen. Norm Coleman, has the most to lose here.
RIP: The Political Impact Of The Newspaper Institutional Editorial
A fascinating exchange between MinnPost's media writer David Brauer and Star Tribune editorial board writer Jill Burcum flagged an important milestone in Minnesota public affairs. We passed it years ago but have not yet written about it because, quite frankly, it's painful. We've long respected many of the fine journalists involved, even the ones your publisher has ideologically disagreed with most of the time. [Hello, Susan Albright.]
To be blunt, the milestone is that the unsigned editorials -- the institutional voices of our states' two largest newspapers, the Minneapolis Star Tribune and the St. Paul Pioneer Press, have become irrelevant in Minnesota politics.
To summarize Brauer (here's his piece)/Burcum (her piece is in the Comments section) exchange: Brauer wrote that the Star Tribune "has shucked its rep as a lefty lightning rod." Further, he noted that the paper has moved away from its "reliably pro-environment rhetoric." But his specific gripe (a legitimate one) is that a Sunday pro-offshore oil drilling editorial should have noted Star Tribune owner Avista Capital Partners' significant economic interest in offshore oil drilling. According to Brauer, Avista has more investments in energy (seven) than its other sectors, health care (six) and media (five), to the tune of at least $338 million, and probably much, much more.
Recall that Avista bought the Star Tribune for $530 million in 2006. The on-the-street, gossipy -- and generous -- valuation of the Star Tribune today is between $100-200 million. That means that Avista has a much greater stake in oil than it does in the Strib. [And for the record, I'm in favor of offshore oil drilling.]
Should the paper have disclosed its owners' substantial oil investment interests?
You bet.
To the Star Tribune's Burcum's credit, she bylined her comments in response. However, her comments were an over-the-top, bizarre compilation of ad hominem attacks on Brauer's work as a defense to the Star Tribune's nondisclosure of Avista interests. [Brian Lambert, my former radio colleague in crime, adds the human journo drama here.]
What's worse, Burcum wrote, "Our editorials on [Minnesota DFL Attorney General] Lori Swanson played a key role in triggering the legislative auditor's investigation and calls for reform at the office."
That's not only wrong, it's patently absurd.
[Read the rest of the story here.]
DFL Congressional Candidates Have Best Shot In Years
Some of Minnesota's traditionally less contested Congressional districts are shaping up to become fairly competitive contests. In the First Congressional District (CD), we get the bonus primary spectacle of Brian Davis and the highly quotable Sen. Dick Day (R-Owatonna) facing off.
In the Second CD, overly overlooked challenger Steve Sarvi, challenger to GOP U.S. Rep. John Kline, brought on Cathy Braatan as finance director in May. It appears to be a good move, as the campaign reported he raised $145,889 in the second quarter of FEC reporting (Q2) -- a two-and-a-half fold increase from Q1 numbers. Blogs have been buzzing since the Cook Political Report moved Kline from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" last week.
However, Kline still outraised Sarvi, grabbing $240,000 during Q2, with a June 30 cash-on-hand balance of $645,000 to Sarvi's $95,000. In this difficult season for Republicans, Kline has maintained a low profile, and carefully restricted admission to his events. Sarvi's people are touting a strong increase in the number of self-identified Dems, which could give Kline a difficult race, and shore up his coat-tails for the DFL's south metro House races.
However, DFL chances are probably best in the 6th, which has really unique electoral and demographic properties because the CD wraps around the top of the metro area from central Minnesota, through the north suburbs and down to Afton and Woodbury.
DFL candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg's most original move was accepting the endorsement of the Independence Party of Minnesota (IPM). Ensuring that no IPM opponent emerged was a major priority for the campaign, because of the way Patty Wetterling lost by 8 points to U.S. GOP Rep. Michelle Bachmann. Independence Party candidate John Binkowski got 23,557 votes, or 7.8%. If Tinklenberg can collect Wetterling's 127,144 votes, and Binkowski's, he'd be a mere 547 votes short. (DFL rules say that their candidates cannot seek endorsements from other parties, but they can still accept endorsements.)
The 1998 electoral record reminds us that the western 6th is the heartland of the original Gov. Jesse Ventura constituency, where he won 40% to 54% of the vote. One "Tink" backer pegged the core IP element at 15% to 20% of the 6th's electorate.
In years without a strong independent candidate, many of these folks could gravitate to "freedom-friendly" campaigns. The unruly potential of these voters was made clear during the GOP's primary season this year. A wing of this intermittently seen group swarmed the GOP caucuses, put up libertarian Ron Paul delegates, and managed to get control of the GOP's CD6 national convention delegates through plurality rules. As PIM previously reported, Bachmann gave a rather Paulite-friendly speech at the CD6 convention, a shrewd move to try to keep these people under the big tent. (On the other hand, GOP party chair Ron Carey's clumsy efforts to suppress these grassroots activists may likely send them packing, not volunteering.)
So how does Tinklenberg navigate this uniquely oddball turf? Tack to the center [he got endorsed by the conservative Blue Dog Dems], espouse a get-things-done philosophy, stay on message and present himself as an atypical DFLer for the flinty residents of CD6. Bachmann would find it difficult to flank him on the right by importing some consultants to trot out the traditional wedge issues: he is pro-life, pro-gun and pro-outdoors in the commonly understood sense. [His pro-life stance comes from years as a Methodist minister in Blaine, prior to becoming mayor there.] He is credible as an Anoka County kind of guy (with the exception of his last name, which just doesn't roll off the tongue).
One skeleton for Tink is his service as former Gov. Jesse Ventura's Transportation Commissioner, during which MnDOT had received an ominous report about the ill-fated I-35W bridge. We heard that he never saw that report, which disappeared into a silo in a technical section of MnDOT.
He may also suffer from a lack of name ID, which the campaign sought to fix with prominent early billboard buys, centered on the key corridor in the district that is Highway 10. The campaign also went on radio around the Stillwater side and will stay there until August. We heard they are on something of a DCCC "short list" and with a good poll, might get to what they call "The List," bringing more outside Dem resources to bear. [The NRCC sent its chairman, U.S. Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK4), to headline an event with Bachmann a few days ago, but they'll be stretched quite thin this fall. MPR reported Cole also visited with Davis down in CD1, which may indicate a primary preference?]
While Tink will see if a pragmatic style resonates, Bachmann's aggressive whole-hog approach may leave a bitter taste with local communities. (Democrats think "exciting" viewpoints on fluorescent light bulbs and Middle Eastern paranoia make interesting articles, but have little to do with what CD6 residents need from their rep in D.C.)
In particular, she has disavowed earmarks, which sounds fabulous until a rotting, closed bridge like the DeSoto in St. Cloud has to be immediately replaced. The remedy is an earmarked new bridge (the type of item U.S. Rep. Jim Oberstar (D-MN8) would cheerily obtain, we're sure); instead, Bachmann can literally offer St. Cloud nothing from Washington, at all. Talk about putting yourself into a pointless corner.
The east end of the district saw DFLers capture unexpected spots in 2006 (all three seats in the suburban Washington County's SD 56.) Tinklenberg likely won't cause problems for DFLers down the ticket, for example in Rep. Paul Gardner's tricky race in the once-conservative 53A. (Gardner also gets to watch a nice primary fight between former Sen. Mady Reiter, favored by the GOP establishment, and the locally endorsed John Kappler.)
There might be another interesting effect in 49B: If Tinklenberg attracts a few independent voters to the DFL column in the small CD6 portion of retiring, independently minded Rep. Kathy Tingelstad's (R-Andover) district (which went 50% for Ventura), the district could go to DFL contender Jerry Newton. Nearby, Tink-backing independents could split the ticket to bolster Rep. Jim Abeler's (R-Anoka) chances in 48B, which went 53% for Ventura. (Abeler has benefited from major crossover votes growing every cycle since 1998, with a 60% victory in 2006.)
Senate districts 16, 18 and 19 are more staunchly Republican electorally, but still had huge Ventura turnout in 1998, and thus could yield unexpected Tink votes. Sen. Tarryl Clark's (DFL-St. Cloud) SD 15 was weaker for Ventura, but has certainly given the DFL high expectations since Rep. Larry Haws (St. Cloud) and Clark were elected in 2005.
In conservative 14B, the GOP's Jim Stauber may have its best CD6 chance to knock out a DFL second-termer, Rep. Larry Hosch (DFL-St. Joseph). In 13A, popular Rep. Bud Heidgerken's (R-Freeport) retirement may lead to a DFL victory if the 10% that voted for IP candidate Paul Ellering in 2002 opt for DFLer Bruce Shuck, who hasn't been able to crack the 35% barrier in three previous runs at the popular Heidgerken.
The Ron Paul Revolution Reaches Minnesota's House Races
North Minneapolis GOP House contender Grant Cermak considers it "a great honor from the most impressive statesman in America."
No, not the Presidential Medal of Freedom awarded by President George Bush. Perhaps better (to a select few, anyway): the U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (TX-14) endorsement of Cermak's bid in 58A against six-term incumbent Rep. Joe Mullery (DFL-Minneapolis). Cermak is the first in Minnesota to receive the Texas Representative's endorsement, although a few more are expected to be announced soon.
Tom Lizardo, Paul's chief of staff, said there are radically more requests for endorsement this election cycle. While he hasn't actually crunched the numbers, he wouldn't be surprised if the office has received over 100 requests, compared to about 12 in past years. He estimates Paul will endorse 10 to 12 candidates in Minnesota.
Candidates who pursue endorsement receive a questionnaire, which Lizardo describes as a "covenant where candidates declare what they really believe." There are over a dozen questions that focus on issues, political viability and campaign management. When comparing the endorsement process to college admissions, Lizardo said the Paul endorsement process was competitive to highly competitive.
"It's not simple and easy to get," Lizardo said.
The campaign doesn't do intensive, formal background checks ("We're not in the investigative business," Lizardo said.), but they do check out candidate websites, and perhaps talk to a few local Paul activists who know the candidate. As Congressman Paul is quite busy, candidates who haven't heard back yet about their endorsement shouldn't fear they have been rejected - the rate of return depends on Paul's availability to discuss potential candidates.
A Paul endorsement signifies someone who agrees with Paul on limited government, restricted government spending, and lower taxes. Lizardo considers candidates' answer to the question, "Do you strongly believe in limited government philosophy?" to be the most important when considering endorsement.
At this point, Paul is not endorsing anyone who is running against incumbent Republican members of Congress. Paul has endorsed some non-Republicans, including a Libertarian candidate for mayor in Michigan (there was no GOP candidate). There are currently three to four dozen candidates endorsed by Paul.
Yet, for all the honor it bestows, it likely isn't enough to secure a victory for Cermak. In 2006, Mullery received over 75% of the vote against GOP candidate Nicole Kuehn and Independence Party candidate Justin Adams.
Top Ten House Races To Watch: Part II
[Don't miss Part I if you haven't read it.]
In 37A, Tara Mack is running against Rep. Shelley Madore (DFL-Apple Valley). Mack is the legislative assistant for 34B's Rep. Joe Hoppe (R-Chaska) and so brings to the race a deft understanding of Capitol operations. Besides a "passion for the political process,'" she's had the opportunity to learn "what it takes to be a good legislator," Mack told Thisweek Newspapers in February. First-termer Madore will defend her seat, but has more than just one election under her belt. In 2004 she lost the race for 37A to former Rep. Lloyd Cybart by 466 votes, but returned in 2006 to defeat him by a mere 195.
Once a DFL stronghold, district 17A has been represented by Republican Rob Eastlund (R-Isanti) since 2000. As the district has grown in population, it has increasingly voted for Republican candidates, but Eastlund's 2006 victory over Melissa Jabas was very narrow. With only 195 votes separating the candidates two years ago, the DFL will be considering this a winnable seat. To oppose Eastlund, they've endorsed Jim Godfrey, an Education Minnesota-affiliated teacher from Cambridge. He's secured a number of endorsements, including Jabas, Sen. Rick Olseen (DFL-Harris) and Rep. Jeremy Kalin (DFL-Lindstrom).
Speaking of Rep. Kalin, the freshman will have to defend his seat in 17B against Don Taylor, who won endorsement over three other candidates—notably including Lindstrom mayor Sheldon Anderson. Taylor, currently mayor of Chisago City, says on his campaign site that Kalin "doesn't understand the concerns of the citizens of Chisago County." Kalin points to his record in the Legislature as evidence of his positive performance. It took Kalin two elections to win his seat: in 2004 incumbent Lindstrom Republican Pete Nelson soundly defeated him by 1,990 votes. Kalin returned in 2006 to win by only 204 votes.
The 56A representative, Julie Bunn (DFL-Lake Elmo), is another first-term DFLer whose seat the GOP wants to win. In 2006 she scored a narrow victory with 244 more votes than the incumbent freshman Rep. Mike Charron—so her opponents know the race could be tight. To oppose Bunn, Republicans have endorsed a candidate with lots of political experience, Lake Elmo's Kathy Lohmer. Lohmer has been involved in Republican Party activities for fifteen years as a delegate and caucus-goer, and decided that she "need[s] to give it a shot and run," the Stillwater Gazette reported.
In 2006, Robin Brown (DFL-Austin) edged out the Republican candidate Matt Benda in a close race for the Democratic-leaning but mixed 27A. Albert Lea Republican Dan Dorman had retired after four terms in the seat. This season, her opponent is Albert Lea's Erik Larsen, who wrote in the Albert Lea Tribune that he will focus on economic growth in the district as a campaign issue. Complicating the scene is the campaign of William Wagner of Ellendale, a DFLer who will run against Brown in a September 9 primary.
In 38B Lynn Wardlow (R-Eagan) will again square off against Mike Obermueller. Their 2006 race was very competitive, with Wardlow taking the seat for a third term by 163 votes. Obermueller himself is said to have been shocked at how close he came to winning. 38B's typical Republican lean—and the symbolic quality of Pawlenty's former House seat—should motivate the DFL to consider this an important race.
Bit & Pieces
While he's always been an independent spirit, Rep. Ron Erhardt (R-Edina) has just announced through his campaign site that he will be filing to run as a "Moderate Independent" candidate this fall, since he was deprived of his party's nomination, and he will be "independent of the tyranny of party extremes."
Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life Federal PAC, the oldest and largest pro-life political action committee in the state, announced its endorsement of Presidential Candidate U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). MCCL cited his solid pro-life voting record, having cast 31 pro-life votes since 1997.
When we saw KSTP's less-than-complimentary story about the Iron Range attraction 'Ironworld,' we knew that one of our favorite bloggers would have to chime in. Sure enough, Aaron Brown of Minnesota Brown eviscerated KSTP's hit piece in a post typical of his understanding of Range politics and economics. First, Brown takes the KSTP team to task for their ignorance of mining tax mechanics, but the real issue is what Brown calls the 'demeaning' tone of the piece. It's framed as a sort of urban vs. rural antagonism that "was designed to bring the viewer to a ready-made conclusion." He makes the point that Ironworld is funded with regional monies; to suggest to KSTP's chiefly suburban audience that "their" money is being wasted is not just disingenuous but patently offensive, insinuating that Range culture isn't worth preserving. We thought it was an interesting case: it's great to see the Range's most passionate voice on the 'net tell the other side of the story against the established broadcast media. His post got picked up on MNSpeak and MPR (as well as our Morning Report, of course) and so it's getting some well-deserved attention as an alternative voice.
Gov. Tim Pawlenty made five appointments to the Board of Nursing. The new appointees are Jacqueline Dickie of Apple Valley, Lynne Linden of Burnsville, James Peterson of Medina and Maria Raines of Lakeville. Kathleen Haberman of Heron Lake was reappointed. All five will be filling terms that expire in January 2012. Also Sen. Betsy Wergin (R-Priceton) was named to the Public Utilities Commission, Dr. David Boyd was named as Chair of the PUC replacing LeRoy Koppendrayer.
The Department of Health released their Induced Abortions in Minnesota: Jan-Dec 2007 Report to the Legislature on July 1 (PDF), causing a stir around the abortion debate. Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life (MCCL) issued a press release that credited the Positive Alternatives program, while Planned Parenthood of Minnesota pointed to public health programs geared toward prevention (their press release pointed out later that 95% of the services Planned Parenthood provides focus on prevention).
Tonight, Friday, July 11th, The Guthrie will be opening "The Government Inspector," with our favorite actress [and PIM staffer, Ricé Davis' daughter] Maggie Chestovich playing Marya Antonovna (Chestovich is undoubtedly talented, and fabulously beautiful to boot). Described as "witty, smart and wildly satirical," the play centers around Russian locals who learn an undercover government inspector is making a surprise visit. Click here for times and tickets.
Congratulations to Brooke Barsness, Michael Charron and Mary Beth Schubert for their new roles on the Minnesota State Arts Board, and an "At-a-girl!" to Ellen McInnis, who was re-appointed to the eleven-member board appointed by Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Barsness is the executive director of the Fergus Area College Foundation, Charron served as a State Representative during the 2005-06 biennium and is the dean of St. Mary's University School of the Arts, Schubert is vice president of corporate affairs for Comcast, and McInnis is the director of the Minnesota government relations at Wells Fargo. We also salute Corey Elmer, Jane Belau and Diana Lewis, who are the three outgoing members. The Minnesota State Arts Board supports art accessibility through grants and services.
Love the new ad from the Coalition for a Democratic Workplace featuring Vincent Curatola from HBO's The Sopranos, emulating his character Johnny Sack? Then you'll love the topic of Monday's Chamber Luncheon. The 2008 Employment Law Update Luncheon, sponsored by the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce, will feature president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber Tom Donahue. He will be explaining how Card Check, known by proponents as the "Employee Free Choice Act," affects businesses and what is being down to block this legislation. [WCCO's Pat Kessler criticized the ad this week.]
The appointment of the Hon. Michelle Larkin to the Minnesota Court of Appeals has opened a seat on the Tenth Judicial District trial court bench. Interested licensed Minnesota attorneys who are residents of the Tenth Judicial District should contact John Hultquist. Deadline is July 23.
The appointment of the Hon. Michelle Larkin to the Minnesota Court of Appeals has opened a seat on the Tenth Judicial District trial court bench. Interested licensed Minnesota attorneys who are residents of the Tenth Judicial District should contact John Hultquist. Deadline is July 23.
This coming Wednesday, clear the calendar for a day of dining and dialogue. For a mere $90, one could lunch at Golden Valley's Metropolitan Ballroom and Clubroom while author Joseph Fornieri discusses Lincoln's Political Faith, then drive across town for dinner at the North Oaks Golf Club to hear Phyllis Schlafly explain how the 2008 election might affect your life. When registering, note the two meals are actually separate events; the lunch is an American Experiment Luncheon Forum, and the dinner is sponsored by the Minnesota Eagle Forum (PDF).
For some studious summer reading, swing by the Minnesota Legislative Reference Library. They just received a fresh batch of state government reports. Click here to read more about what's Just In at the library.
This publication avoids information about fundraisers like the plague because there are so many. However, it's always noteworthy when a well-established lobbyist picks a horse. Bill Strusinski and Kirsten Libby are hosting a fundraiser at their home, 11 Crocus Hill in St. Paul, for Sen. Tom Bakk's (DFL-Cook) gubernatorial bid on Wednesday, July 23rd from 5-7 p.m. It's $50 for an individual or $100 for PACs and lobbyists. Call (651) 224-7095 for additional info.
St. Paul mayor Chris Coleman praised Bob Bierscheid's leadership at St. Paul Parks and Recreation for garnering national recognition in the Trust for Public Land rankings. St. Paul earned a number one ranking in the number of recreational centers (2.6 per 20,000 residents) and number of baseball diamonds (about 6 per 10,000 residents), third for the number of tennis courts (3.7 per 10,000 residents) and fourteenth in the number of non-seasonal park employees per 1,000 residents (1.08).
Growth and Justice president Dane Smith posted his argument for adding public housing to the disinvestment crises on Monday. "Seriously declining federal aid over the last seven years, both for major repairs and routine maintenance, has led to loss of units, financial crises for local housing agencies and even threats to health and safety of residents. Some 200 units have been closed since 2002 and another 330 are at risk."
Christmas in July? No, Christmas trees in July. The City of St. Paul is looking for large evergreen holiday trees 75' to 95' in height. Benefits of a tree donation include a tax deduction (last year's tree appraisal ranged from $3,000 to $6,000), as well as free tree removal and stump grinding. But the knowledge that you donated one of those festive trees? Priceless.
Can the FCC regulate Comcast's practice of inserting spoofed reset packets into your Internet connection? As we go to press, GOP-appointed chairman Kevin Martin of the FCC is recommending sanctions against the provider for deceiving its customers. Local Comcast subscribers experiencing their utility's "man in the middle" hack attacks designed to foul peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing programs (which are now increasingly used by legal content providers to bypass cable distribution - and Comcast's revenue-generating local ad splicing) might be interested in a certain contradiction in their stance: after previously claiming the FCC has no authority to address the issue, they supported a California judge's move to stay an angry customer's lawsuit because the issues involved have "been firmly placed with the jurisdiction" of the FCC. Can the local insertion advertising on video streams survive the peer-to-peer revolution from innovative P2P piggyback companies like Vuze?
With the impressively silly levels of media buzz around former Gov. Jesse Ventura this week, we're surprised no one noted that he appears at the end of "The 9/11 Chronicles: Truth Rising," the latest rabble-rousing Internet conspiracy video from Texas radio talker Alex Jones, which focuses in particular on the lethal lies from national and local governments about the dangerous pollution around Ground Zero. [You can watch it here.] During the closing credits of the cinéma vérité style video, U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) says there shouldn't be a new investigation of 9/11, which was consistent with his usual stance of avoiding investigations that could trouble the Beltway establishment. [Fortunately for him, in the calculus of today's media, closing your eyes to D.C. corruption is neither an offense nor an oversight.] Ventura, of course, has expertly messaged this large Internet subculture to build up quite a fan base lately. Though a June 2008 Rasmussen poll shows his unfavorable rating at 62%.
Citizens for Election Integrity MN and the League of Women Voters in Minnesota are calling for volunteers to observe the election audit and random selection process. They will train all volunteers, and need observers in greater Minnesota.
Lobbyist Watch
From the Minnesota Campaign Finance & Public Disclosure Board:
Morning Reports
